Dollar index - A triangle consideration

I have considered that the dollar index topped and reversed from its 5th wave. Howevver as the dollar index is now close to the 61.8% retracement mark of 95.50, we should also consider the triangle possibility. This means that since the start of 2015 the dollar topped and is forming a triangle. All the moves up and down can be marked as a-b-c, The recent fall in the dollar is also a-b-c so far, So if it holds 95.50 it can start another a-b-c up to the 100 mark. This needs to be watched over the next few days to see if it is developing.

Nasdaq - ending

US peaks have often ended with triangles, and specifically expanding patterns. The Nasdaq has sported clear expanding triangles so let me go over them on the Nasdaq 100

2000 - A two month long expanding triangle broke after a days pause at the lower line. The first sell off going far below the lower line before wave B could develop.

2007 - It took an entire year to form this expanding structure. Wave A achieved the target for the expanding structure before wave B followed.

2015 - One and a half year long expanding pattern with the final leg up in wave E carrying lots of inter market divergences where the Nasdaq Composite did not confirm the new record in the Nasdaq 100. But the fall from there is now in its 5th wave and therefore wave A is in the final stages of completing. Wave A in this case has not yet broke the neckline in the 100 but it has in the Composite. However in wave 5 we are getting closer to the end of wave A and start of wave B. The neckline is at 3845. Once wave B forms we will get the best risk reward for the short side.

Copper

Copper - wave 2 down in progress and has already retraced 61.8% at 2.0$. It should continue to consolidate in wave 2 for a while and once wave 3 up starts we should go above 2.15$.

USDSGD

Evidence continues to mount on currencies entering a correction from the big dollar rally. So the USDSGD contract has been falling after forming wave 1 that ended like a leading diaonal. Wave 2 down is open to multiple retracements till it completes. 38.2% is at 1.364 

USDIDR

USDIDR - or the Indonesian rupiah is not in the news so much recently and for a good reason. It started to correct from its 5 wave advance ahead of others. It should be on the verge of starting wave C down to 12655

Relative Rupee

After a long time I am discussing the Relative rupee as it has started to move up mostly because of the falling dollar index. The RR [green] indicator is the ratio of USDINR/Dollar index, and a rising indicator shows the rupee weakening sharply and development of inflationary pressures. After a long decline the indicator did move up in Sept but after that it was flat down. From March we can say it is making higher bottoms. So more recently it has started to rise again. Still a long way to go to the upper end of the long term channel range.

US Ten year T notes

The US 10 year T notes reached the parallel channel line discussed over a week back. And last week I also discussed that sentiment was already at an extreme bullish US interest rates. So this is due for a reversal. When ever it does the question is whether wave 3 down would start. If so then it would signal the start of higher interest rates and bond market pressures on Gsec's, in other words our own interest rates would face even more upward pressure. So this is an important indicator as the 2013 crisis involved wave 1 down for bonds. Wave 3 should be even more pressuring when it starts.

Crude

Crude is in wave 5 of the crash so the final wave down. The only question is where will it bottom. We just have to wait for a 5 wave decline to complete. Multiple levels to watch are 25$ at the lower channel, and Fibonacci targets of 24 and 21.70.