Chinese Yuan, S&P Google CRB

Published: Tue, 01/05/16

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Market Forecasting At It's Best
Dear ,

It has been a wild start to the new year but so was the last calendar year. That markets are worrying about the CNY after 9 weeks of it declining is amusing at best. The next two days would give a clearer picture of where we are headed. Today I have included the weekly update and the posts made since 30-12 for your reference.

04 JANUARY 2015 

The weekly elliott wave commentary with Targets and levels is published every Sunday to Subscribers, This is only an excerpt.

MEDIUM TERM

NIFTY ELLIOTT WAVE UPDATE 

Nifty not only closed the month positive but did so with a hammer candlestick at the 7550 double bottom. That gives a lot of strength to the recent bottom area. On Friday that was followed by a close above the 20 week average that pushed weekly momentum into..  READ MORE

nifty020116


Google

If there is any indicator of a top for US stock markets it might be the leaders of this rally that were at all time highs like Amazon and Google.

The chart of Google from 2008 lows shows that it has completed 4 waves in a channel and the 5th wave up just started in July. Yes the stock is doing its own thing. Wave 3=1 so can wave 5 extend? Theoretically yes. But even conservatively wave 5=1 or near the upper channel. The upper channel is at 1100 and 5=1 at 1300$. When Google is done here it might be worth considering that deeper US market correction but right now we are in wave III of 5 up.

google301215


CRB

The CRB index formed a minor 5 wave advance from the bottom as a first clear sign of trend reversal. Any dip would be minor wave ii down before higher levels are seen.

crb311215


USDCNY

Today's reaction to the CNY appears late. The USDCNY usd been rising for a while and went past the panic level of wave 3 some time back. So now wave 5=1 target has been achieved and it is a bit overbought. The trend has not reversed but can. It is a larger degree 3rd wave as marked in blue, which once complete could see a period of consolidation.

usdcny040116

 

S&P on the line

The S&P is up and down a lot lately but overall it is in the same range and just going back to the lower end of a channel trendline that encompasses what might be a wave B formation. Remember that at the 14-12 low I thought wave B was over and C up started, and we did get a rally. But now prices are back down. so mostly wave E of B is still forming. The lower line is at 1977 and as long as we close above that this is the best case. Below it we would have to think about the US stock market collapse coming back at us. Recently sentiment on US indices was in single digits so I wonder if things will get worse without a rebound first. Watch this level for clues.

snp050116

 

Euro at support

The Euro has been consolidating for a while and now the Bollinger bands have contracted. Wave iii up could start anytime now and should go to 1.1325

euro050116


 
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Rohit Srivastava
www.indiacharts.com
For accurate market forecasting. Market forecasting is a study of past data to assess
future probable outcomes. It is our endeavour to discuss high probability outcomes for
traders and investors. However this is not a solicitation to buy or sell stocks futures or
options or any security. Trading in any financial market should be done with sound
knowledge and the help of a qualified investment adviser. Stocks based on the Elliott
wave model are based on the Fibonacci fractal of the market and momentum indicators,
Price levels are based on Fibonacci maths and are only indicative of what the mathematical
model throws up. We may hold positions in the stocks/markets discussed and are
interested in the views and opinions expressed. This is not a recommendation to buy/sell.
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