The Long and Short of it

The Long and short of it : 

15-January-2016

At the start of the new year if you read the news it sounds like hell is breaking loose everywhere. So it has not been able for me to cook up some optimism. But a lot of what is being bailed out by the press does not make sense. The Chinese stock market has been in the spotlight, but it should have been so between 2009-2014 when it was in a 5 year long bear market. If then doubled but had no positive impact on anything and try plotting China with the DXY or Nifty and you will not find any trade-able relationship. The China stock market is up on a one year basis and Nifty is down. The cutting of margin trades is being made up a global affair. Sounds orchestrated. But a lot of the other reasons sound like yesterday's news. Oil was looking bearish at 90, at 60 at 50. I had a target of 45 then 38, yes then I started to look for a bottom and on breaking 35 gave 32-31, and now again am looking for a bottom. Because I do not worry about something after it has happened, I was not made that way. I wrote about rising dollar falling commodities and EMs all of last year, and maybe I am tired of doing so, and so to hear it in the news now is boring, this is yesterday's news. It cannot be tomorrow's news. The simultaneous overbought readings in rising USD pairs [not DXY], and oversold readings in falling EMs equities, falling commodities, all together at the same time, tells me that the sell trade is now a little late in the day. Let me leave this for someone else on the table. There maybe other troubles ahead but right now I cannot react to this kind of news.