Bank Nifty S&P Euro Dollar Singapore

Published: Fri, 02/26/16

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The Complete Analysis
Dear ,

I hope you have read the Latest Economic Cycle Update, if not it is here Indian Economic Crisis 2.0

Find below all the updates posted on Indiacharts this week so far.





 

USDTWD

USDTWD - did not correct as much, so the decline might be complete for a resumption of the next move higher. This is a third wave. Yesterdays close is 33.25, the next move is to the upper end of the channel at 35. The Asian currency is just getting warmed up as it has a series of impulse wave from 2014 so a long way up to go over the next few years.

usdtwd240216


S&P

S&P topped near the upper channel of what can be a flat correction [a-b-c] in wave 2, From 1947 as the high of wave 2 wave 3 down projects to 1700 where 3=1.

snp240216


Bank Nifty

Bank nifty closed below the lower trendline of what could be a multi year wedge pattern, with major long term bearish implications, yeah right, I know banks have crashed already, but this is a Supercycle and the financial sector is usually the biggest casualty.

wc


Midcaps Not a Pretty picture

The BSE Midcap index or CNX Midcap, both have broken down from a Head and Shoulders top pattern and are below the neckline for the last 2 weeks. The H&S target is far lower and a lot may pain may lie ahead for this segment of the market.

midcap240216


Dollar Index

The Dollar index stopped at the 40dema after a 3 wave advance. As long as it closes below the 97.65 and 97.92 we should be developing wave iii of III down next to break below the 95.28 low. Target of iii=i is at 93.50. This would rule out the triangle possibility at larger degree marked in blue.

dxy250216


Straits Times - Singapore

Straits times index - It was for these Asian and EM markets doing wave B in Nov that I was bullish in Jan expecting wave B to hold out longer. But clearly these bear markets quickly rolled over into wave C and no where over. C=A is near 2400 for Singapore , not anticipating extentions. And it could be that it is not C but 3 down. Prices rolled over from the 40dema so the next leg down should have started.

singapore250216



Euro

The Euro dipped a bit to test the 40dema and the 61.8% retracement level. Holding above 1.10 on a closing basis there is no change in wave count. Wave iii up should be next. A fall below 1.10 would increase the odd that a-b-c up completed and we are going to retest 1.05 in a larger triangle pattern at the bottom before the next move up.

 euro230216


Crude

Crude Oil has two channels to watch, shown in blue and yellow. Points marked 'a' and 'b' are 3 waves each. So either wave 4 is complete and wave 5 down starts right away with the blue channel. If crude is unable to cross 35$ wave 4 is a running flat as shown and starts down from here. If however it is a more complex pattern it would attempt to move higher to the yellow channel and previous swing high near 37$ first. A move above 37.75 can mean that a bottom in for crude. So 35$ should be considered the first hurdle from where wave 5 down if at all present should form right away.

crude240216
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Rohit Srivastava
www.indiacharts.com
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