Copper

Copper has developed an inverted head and shoulders bottom formation with the neckline at 2.136. The first rally was wave i and impulse. Wave iii will break above the neckline and head to the head measurement projection of 2.36$

Crude

Crude - It is always impossible to predict the last $ in any move. Sometimes we are lucky but not always. So crude did keep falling even as other commodities were holding up last month. So such an intermarket divergence is a sign that we are in the last phase. Yesterday I discussed that the move up is wave 4 in Oil, but a few weeks back I was exploring a bottom and that is not ruled out. Simply consider this chart where wave 4 is a diamond then wave 5 is complete. I made it clear in a twitter debate as well, I cannot catch the last 5$ on Oil, still as it fell below 30$ I did project to 26.50. But do not forget that for all the reasons above it is possible that Crude has bottomed out. A final confirmation will come from indicators across time frames and a 5 wave rise clearly on the daily chart. 

This second chart shows RSI positive divergence in Crude on weekly charts, and there is one on the daily chart as well in this most recent decline. If prices hold up then even the Monthly RSI will have a positive divergence.

CRB Index

CRB index probably completed its 5th wave at a double bottom, and on a closing basis it was a lower low so the RSI [which is based on closing prices] shows a positive divergence at this recent low. So the first impulse wave up for the commotity index might have started.

US Ten year T notes

The World markets are rising from a 5th wave or wave C down as I forecast, and many currency pairs strengthened in the last week first on a Yuan intervention and now on Mexico raising interest rates. Perfect so the Indian stock market should tag along right? The only time that did not happen was in 2013 when the US bond market made its first major decline on ''Taper talk''. So the chart of the US 10 year is staring at me as the only spoke in the wheel. Wave C of a 2 year counter trend move maybe ending at 78.6% retracement. US yields have been rising over the last few days, A big move down in bonds could kick off pressure on Indian bond and currency markets just as it did in 2013 and then suddenly everything else will not matter. Keep watching this indicator.

USDMXN

USDMXN just completed a 5 wave rise from the 2014 bottom after a throw over the upper channel line. 16.46 is the wave 4 of lower degree. Many weeks/months of correction should lie ahead in wave 4 of larger degree.

Shanghai Composite

China - The Shanghai Composite just completed a 78.6% retracement of the previous rally. So while everyone is writing off China. The large impulse and correction in a 3 waves down is actually reason to believe that the bull market will just resume. After all China has had a 7 year bear market from 2007-2014. Unlike other EMs they were going down hill when everyone was going up hill. So it is only natural that the News about China was worse at the recent higher bottom than it was at the low in 2014. That is one of the principles about EW psychology. News is often as bad or worse at the wave 2 higher bottom. That is what brings prices down. But if worse news does not result in a new market low it means that the bull market is just getting warmed up. So it came to me as no surprise that when I ran a twitter poll last month 66% of the votes were Short Shanghai and Long Nifty, exactly the opposite of what the Long term wave count suggests. Let me put it another way, since there is enough said about how Chinese data is not reliable, why go by what analysts think about China as they probably cannot know the truth about China anyway. But the chart does not lie. Of course you should wait for more confirmation that a rally started in China if you are trading there but this is a very interesting chart. And wave 3 will be slow and steady absorbing all the selling along the way so it wont be the same fireworks we saw in wave 1. Probably no one will write about China any more for a while.

USDTHB - Thai Baht

The Thai Baht - When wave B completed I projected C=A down. Wave C has not gone that far and has found support at the 40wema, and weekly Bollinger band on the chart below. Wave 2 maybe complete as a double bottom here. The weekly charts show a doji with a long lower shadow. Wave 3=1 maybe due next which would take it to 40 from 35.50 currently.

USDGBP

USDGBP has not fallen impulsively. So the up trend may resume. Wave 3 circle has an overall objective of 0.74 or higher. 0.688-0.694 are the 20/40 day averages that should act as support.

Euro - all by itself

We have reached the point where all currency pairs are on their own path again. Some rising some falling. So the Euro has dropped to the 20dma at 1.105, holding which wave iii of III up should start.

Dow - Are we ready to Crash?

The Dow is critically poised, if I have to think of the best bearish wave count it is this. Not wave 4 or wave 5 complete at last weeks low, but wave 2 just formed as an a-b-c , flat, 3 waves in a channel. Unless wave c extends it should end close to the channel and wave 3 down should start. Wave 2 has retraced almost 50% of wave 1 so that is enough. 61.8% would be at 16868 in case wave c up extends higher.

USDCNY

Among the reasons I was expecting pressure on equities to ease last month was that the USDCNY would top out. It took time but it did. However a year back I also believed that this would be the source of trouble once China joins the trade war. But as I read the news about the Chinese Yuan devaluations and interventions, it looks less and less like a currency war. It is more China's attempt to float the currency without too much volatility as it becomes part of IMFs SDR basket. So news can be pretty cooked up on this issue. The chart below shows a potential A-B-C advance complete. You can argue we are only falling in wave 4. But I think the real issue is that USDCNY has topped. The fall of they Yuan could easily become yesterday's story. The reasons have not been compelling enough in my opinion. It is very probable that the Yuan actually starts to strengthen a lot. We will need fresh evidence on this market to call for another round of devaluation. If the currency pair consolidates in a price range like a triangle we can call it wave 4 and anticipate more upside. But right now it is best to let the chart develop.

Dax Reaching a critical level

DAX - German stock markets reach a critical deciding point. The fall from the Dec high completed 5 waves down. If complete we can mark A-B-C in a falling channel as shown below and call a bottom. Till the recent lows do not break indicating wave extentions this is the best case scenario.

The falling channel coincides with the long term rising channel from 2009 as well. So this is a level at which the up trend re-asserts itself or a break down confirms a larger trend reversal.