BSE Metals BSE Auto Dow Dollar

Published: Mon, 03/21/16

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The Complete Technical Analysis
Dear ,

Against all odds and FB debates we have a rally in commodities and crude oil. The rally in commodities is in its early days and might even correct as a 5 wave rise completes. On the other hand the dollar remains in a broad trading range since April 2015 and it has still to break out of the range. Longer term I think that would be topping pattern. Lastly everyone expects lower interest rates but I will only watch bond yields for the real picture when it comes to interest rates.



US Ten year T notes

US 10 year notes - I concluded a few days back that we had a 5 wave decline in the 10 year notes, but after the last 3 days action it can be marked as only 3 waves done and it will take one more dip for a vth to form. Prices are at the falling trendline and 40dema, so let us see if one more spike in yields shows up first.

tnotes170316


BSE Auto

The Auto index closed within the rising channel and pushed the daily momentum to a sell. An a-b-c advance from the Feb bottom maybe complete and another impulse wave down in wave V may start from here till we stay below the wave IV high.

auto170316


BSE Metals

Time to be cautious metals as it is not clear whether the next move will be small or sizeable. A 3 wave rise is clear in a-b-c up and averages or retracements might be put to test. It is possible that the movements since Sept which have been in a range and both sides are part of a larger wave 4 triangle as shown below. Then the next wave down would be wave D of the triangle.

metals170316


USDJPY

The Yen did get stronger recently  but the USDJPY pair appears as a triple bottom near 111. So if this level holds we may have completed wave Y and be due for another bounce back in wave X in the coming weeks. 38.2% retracement amounts to 115.

usdjpy180316



Dow Transports

Dow Transports can be considered as a 5 wave decline. Wave 1 was a leading diagonal as shown last year. Wave 4 was a triangle [yes I considered it as B too, but this is an alternate], then wave 5 ended and we have retraced almost 61.8% which is at 8208, near the wave 4 high. Most of the upside is done here and we wait for a clear sign of the next leg down showing up.

dowt180316


Dow

The Dow continues to rise relentlessly, the day I tried marking it as complete the S&P did not confirm and then the reverse happened few days later. Now wave v of c continues to extend for 5 days without a halt. When it stops the move should be complete. The falling trendline from the all time high is at 17700

DOW180316



Dollar Index - FED Focus

If you ask me the focus of the FED yesterday was to keep the dollar weak. Nothing else changed in the narrative. So the dollar index did fall but I would really like to rule out the blue labels that wave E to 100.7 will occur in one last push up. A break below the wave D low of 95.28 would increase the odds that we have started a major decline phase for the dollar already. My yellow markings show that.

dxy170316
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Rohit Srivastava
www.indiacharts.com
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