Crude

Crude has started the next move lower. Two alternate wave counts are open. Yellow markings show wave A complete and wave B down can dip to 37 and below that to 33$ up to the lower Bollinger band. The blue markings show an expanded flat, This means making a new low below the 26$ low seen in Feb. A move below 32.54 [61.8%] would shift the odds in favour of the blue markings, Till then both are open and we will watch the EW evidence as it develops.

Euro - The triangle affair

The Euro continues to attempt a breakout higher but failing so the best thing to happen is to complete what should be a triangle at the end of wave C. It did something similar in 2001-2002. The dollar has a history of forming a pattern at important turning points.

How Does The Dollar Impact Equities A Historical Perspective?

How Does The Dollar Impact Equities A Historical Perspective?

Video update at this link

https://youtu.be/_lMAZmqMvlY

Nasdaq 100

The Nasdaq after a long time, and I am looking at the Nasdaq 100, that made its record high reading only in Dec 2015, a big inter market divergence. What is clear on most charts is the 5 wave decline from that high, so wave A/1 down is complete and we are waiting for the 3rd wave to start. Here is an interesting count that fits the bill, and right at the Big gap down left behind on the first day of the new year in Jan 2016 as markets crashed. Yesterday we touched the gap up exactly and sold off. Wave c has formed an ending diagonal at the end of a bounce back, completing the pattern and setting it up for the big third wave decline. 

BSE Midcap

The BSE Midcap index closed down after 9 quarters. This even after the highest point was reached 2 quarters earlier. The CNX Midcap index did close down for the Sept quarter but overall Midcap indices have seen a spike lower this quarter but are not closing below the 4 month swing lows. So the chart below is unusual because Nifty completed 4 negative quarters and the BSE Midcap index has only had one. This has never happened before. Usually even if there is a lag of one quarter the two indices complete 4 quarters of a decline and the bear market comes to an end.

But here we have Nifty down for 4 quarters and the Midcap index barely getting started. This either means that the Midcap index is just entering its own bear market or that the Nifty has bottomed and will drive up the Midcaps, or a major divergence between the two. From a high perspective, Nifty is down for 4 quarters since its all time high and the Midcap index for 2 quarters. This two means that you have 2 more quarters down to go on Midcaps.

Now if you look at the BSE Small cap index it gets more complicated. Note that the Midcap/Smallcap indices have made a series of doji patterns and this quarter is the first clear down quarter and then too they have not closed below the trading range. The Small cap index below has in fact remained below the 2008 high and is still overlapping with the 2010 high as well. For those looking at waves this defies all bull market wave counts. These segments usually display a high Beta effect both ways up and down with the markets but here suddenly the Beta on the way down appears absent. I do not see this as a sign of strength till proven by a new high. But you can come to any conclusion of your own. The elevated speculative market while the Nifty was in decline has drawn in Retail investor interest in the market and that has never been a good sign in the past. Did I hear ''This time is different".

Sugar [CSCE]

Sugar prices globally are at a 52 week high as seen below, and in wave 3 up and a long way up to go. So Sugar irrespective of anything else will remain fired up. Expect sugar stocks to take note soon enough.

Goldman Energy NDX

The Goldman Energy NDX futures represent the Brent better than WTI, and as I have tried to argue many times the 5th wave for Oil/Energy might have only ended as a triangle in 2011-2014. So the recent 5 wave decline in Oil is wave A. Wave B is in progress and we might be at the fag end of wave a the first rally for wave B. a move down and then higher will follow before wave B completes.

Dow - To break or not to breakout

The Dow has had a deep retracement of the Dec-Jan decline, so deep that you may question the previous decline itself. Still the preferred wave count is that the rise is wave 2 in a deep retracement and if so then it should reverse somewhere. Prices are above the pink trendline [that touches the tops of 2000 and 2008], and are kissing the falling blue trendline from the highs in May of 2015. RSI at 73 and daily sentiment of bullish opinions at above 83% puts a fair chance of a wave 2 top here. But we need to see actual price action.