USDBRL

USDBRL - The Brazilian Real pair has fallen quite a bit and is in wave v of C which should be the final leg down for this decline near term. Wait for a sign of reversal as prices are now near the lower end of the broader channel range.

USDCAD

USDCAD - The Canadian dollar is now close to its 3 year rising trendline and developing positive divergences from oversold territory. Waiting for wave 4 down to end and the next leg up to confirm.

Dollar Index

I have been kicked about the dollar falling yesterday and driving up Gold but the final goal post to confirm that wave iii down started is a break of the wave D low shown on this chart at 95.28. That would confirm that the fall in the dollar is extending and that we are not forming a larger degree triangle any more. Else I have to keep this option open that the Dollar index will test 100 once more before a larger trend reversal. Note the dollar index is very close to the weekly Bollinger band on this chart as well  at 95.80 where the rising trendline from the Aug low is and that is the first support level.

DAX

Dax - the sell off late in European stocks broke the rising channel and waves a-b-c up can be marked as complete. A fall below the 20dma at 9490 would further confirm.

S&P

S&P - On Thursday I wrote that daily momentum rolled over and you can mark wave c complete on the Dow, But the S&P was different and wave v of c up just started. So we are in the final advance for wave 2 based on this wave count, and one it ends it should end in a reversal and start of wave 3 down.

S&P

S&P shows a completed a-b-c rise for wave 2. It was the only US index to close down yesterday so you do want to watch follow up action and a reversal in short term momentum indicators as well. But the wave count can be marked as complete here. If proven true it sets the stage for a wave 3 decline well below the Feb low of 1810.

Crude - Breaking down

Crude - The trendline I was showing on Friday broke today itself so an a-b-c rise for crude is mostly complete near the falling trendline. This has also pushed the daily momentum to the sell side. What this means is that another leg down starts. This could be wave C of a triangle and has the potential to retest the lower trendline near 26.50$. The first support is at the 20/40 day averages that are in the 34-35$ range. Once we close below that then the Bollinger band at 29$ would be next.

Bank of New York ADR index

The ADR index also shows a completed 3 wave rise in a-b-c at the upper end of the channel. The next move should be lower in another impulse wave down.

Commodity Prices roll over

In the last few days we have seen all the base metals roll over and their daily momentum cross back to a sell. The rise is mostly 3 waves. Yesterday Oil or crude also joined in. So apart from Gold there is no impulse anywhere.

So this takes me a step back on the CRB index to a wave count that I have considered long back. And it fits the channels. If you read Indiacharts in 2012 I was marking the fall from 2011 as w-x-y, and the 2013-2014 period as a-b-c, and expecting the next move down to be another complex pattern.

Recently I considered it near a bottom as long term Fibonacci targets were met. But with commodity prices rolling over it is time to consider this wave count. I can mark the 2014-2016 decline as A-B-C as a continuation to the complex pattern see above. In this chart C=A is achieved but wave C has not completed 5 waves down. Wave 4 is at the upper end of a channel for wave C and the 20 week average [pink], the 20 week average also held off wave 2 so it is critical. A decline from here would take prices lower to 5=1 near the lower end of the channel near 140 in the weeks ahead.