Nasdaq 100

The Nasdaq 100 - has been leading the way down for US stocks, and is now fallen in 5 waves. The vth wave may or may not be complete but normally with wave iii extended it could bounce back in wave II up before wave III down starts near term. This is not necessary, it is possible that waves just extend lower.

CBOE Volatility Index

The VIX 20 year chart gives you a perspective on which side of volatility we are longer term. From the low in 2014 there are two higher bottoms in the VIX, The trend is towards higher volatility. What we are seeing is violent spikes and reversals in the VIX like never before. A fight clearly.

Here is the daily chart of the last 2 years

Copper

a=c for Copper is pointing to 2.04$, as the 20/40 day averages both broke.

Dow

Short term bounces in the US markets need to be ignored as they maybe hard to predict but the big picture is important. The US market has completed a 5 wave rally from the Feb low. However that should be bullish right? I think for once this has EWI confused and they have changed their long term wave counts at this juncture a few times. But the best wave count from an Analyst I came across that explains the Dow is that after the sell off last Sept. The Dow completed a 5 wave decline in wave A and everything afterwards is a flat. It makes sense because the Dow is in a rising channel since Aug. The Jan decline did not break the Aug low and the March-April rally has gone past the Nov high. That a 5 wave rise is complete means that wave (c) of a flat is complete and wave B is over. Wave C the next major wave down to below the Aug low of 15370 should lie right ahead. The reason to consider that the Dow has topped out for good is also that we have a clear ending diagonal at the top in 2015 after which the Dow closed the calendar year 2015 in negative for the first time since 2009.

Dow Transports

The Dow transports index is also very interesting. The fall can be marked as a 5 wave decline that broke the rising trendline from 2009 temporarily. The part marked wave 4 is a textbook contracting triangle. The bounce back in wave B retraced exactly 61.8% and prices have started to fall again. So wave C can mark the start of a major leg down. C=A would be near 5400 from 7667 yesterday. 

USDGBP

USDDGBP has fallen in 3 waves A-B-C, and the implications are that wave 4 correction maybe over near the wave iv low of previous degree. So the long term wave 5 of 3 target near 0.74 is now again active. The avertages near 0.694 are the near term resistances to break. 0.68 and 0.677 are the support. The timing is ideal as we head into the Brexit debate.

Crude

Crude made a high of 46.78 yesterday. Either wave 1 of C ended or wave C is truncated. We need to wait for momentum indicators to give us a sell signal, or a break of the rising trendline at 41.50 to say that a move lower started. C=A  can go as far as 57 if wave C extends beyond the 46.78 high. 

Dollar Index

RSI dropped below 30, which is oversold and often acts as a support for the dollar index. The fall broke the lower trendline for what might be a leading diagonal. It is possible to consider that the dollar is in free fall, but it appears too early for that. The oversold reading should soon cause a bounce back. A leading diagonal is an impulsive pattern and therefore after a wave 2 rally, wave 3 down will unfold in a more serious decline. This structure is indicative that the long term trend has turned down for the Dollar index.

US 10 year T Notes

The US Bond market remains a slow moving animal. So the decline in April is 3 waves. So I am marking it as wave b of 2. Meaning that wave c of 2 up to the upper end of the channel comes first. Near term yields would drop again.