Crude

Crude - last week I posted a parallel line resistance at 41$ that was surpassed for 2 days. But prices are back in the channel and much lower today. So it was a false breakout. The move up was also 3 waves and not impulsive. So we are either in wave B or E down. More probably in wave E. Implications are 32.5$ or  24$. The trend is down till new evidence shows up.

Note I am in the process of making a major change to my wave counts. Reason is that the fall from 62-32 last year was 3 waves down and not 5 waves down, I have tried to fit it in many ways but they are not good.  

Shanghai

It has been quite out there, but today's big tick down in China should mark the start of another move to a new low below the point marked as A. Wave B for 2 months was corrective and not impulsive and not the start of a fresh up move.

ADR Index

The Bank New York ADR index - has moved higher in wave C which is a 5 wave advance and we are in wave v of 5 waiting for a trend reversal. It has touched the reverse falling channel of the lows and is now a Zig-Zag, or 5-3-5, and in alternation to wave 2. At this point it is picture perfect for the next wave down to start unless something changes.

Dow and US Indices

The Dow requires some interesting long term changes to its wave counts due to the current rally. From a near term perspective we should understand that the most recent push up has made the entire rise a 5 wave advance as shown. And we are in wave v of v of 5 right now so very close to a top. But what does this 5 wave rise mean? It would mean that wave 5 top is only occurring now, or this is wave C of a counter trend move in wave 2.

This second chart shows this alternate.

The NYSE Composite is different as it can be considered as a 5 wave decline from the wedge down. Wave 2 up has retraced almost 70% and is now coming close to the wave 4 high.

CRB Index

CRB index broke out of a falling channel in wave c up. This points to 187. So there maybe some more up side. However we are in wave v of c so it is the final push up for this segment. The breakout might have medium term positive implications.

Sugar

Sugar prices started wave 3/3 to 18.8$, a 20% up move from here.

Rice

Most Agro commodity prices shot up sharply recently after a long wait so we are into wave 3 on many charts. Rice here retraced 90% of wave 1 and has now broken out of the falling channel for wave 2. We should see wave 3 go beyond the 14$ mark in the months ahead.

Copper

Copper -  fell in 5 waves and bounced. Wave b up is in progress and a move above 2.18$ would mean that wave b is not complete and goes to 2.27$ near the 61.8% mark. Staying below 2.18$ wave c down to 1.9$ can start any time.