S&P FTSE Dollar Crude Copper Soy Oil

Published: Sun, 06/05/16

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The Complete Technical Analysis
Dear ,

I just published a Winter Update so click to read if you missed my previous email

I hope you have read the Latest Economic Cycle Report, if not it is here Indian Economic Crisis 2.0

This is a eventful month with the RBI FED and Britain all making announcements that will affect the markets. So all the updates on all of this from this week has been put together below for your quick reading.Enjoy it and Share it. 



Dollar Index

Dollar Index corrected yesterday and could have completed wave 1. Initial support is near 95-94.90 near the 20dma from where wave 3 up can resume. Only below 94.90 can we expect a deeper wave 2 correction. Else it may be only a minor blip for a few days. Wave 3 up can go to as far as 99.

dxy020616


USDGBP

USDGBP broke out of a falling trendline and wave 4 should finally be complete giving way to a 5th wave towards 0.74

usdgbp020616


US 10 year T Notes

The US 10 year T notes pushed higher, driving down yields and generating a buy momentum signal. The triangle maybe complete and prices maybe about to break out much higher to higher yields in the days ahead which can be negative for equity markets.

tnotes030616


Sugar The price chase begins

Sugar Prices continue to move higher in international markets and there is no sign of trend reversal now. They may go up non stop for a while as we entere wave 3/3.

sugar030616


Soy Oil 10kg

Soy Oil - on ncdex made a higher bottom in wave 2 of 3. So next should be 3/3 up to 720. Support is at 642 and 627.

soyoil030616


Gram Chana Quintal

Gram Chana - This chart looks at the long term wave count progression. Marking all triangles as wave 4's. We are in 3/3 up of larger degree. Current move should go up to 8300. However short term indicators are in sell mode and we can dip to 5588 if 5857 breaks. So that maybe wave II of 3 and after that correction the up move should continue.

chana030616


Crude CFTC futures

Crude Oil looks like topped or topping but as always takes its time. One indicator that crude maybe over stretched near term or medium term is the commercials positions from the COT report [http://cot-analyser.com/]. They have been short up to 250k+ contracts at many tops in the market [orange horizontal line] from a short term to medium term basis. Prices correct for weeks from this level as shown by the vertical lines. Only in 2014 had positions gone far in excess of this level and the fall was also that much bigger. So once again short positions are building up at this level. The question only is when will prices start down hill and that has become a waiting game.

crude030616



USDCNY

The Chinese Yuan has been inching closer to the Jan high of 6.594, but is still not being noticed by the markets. So it will be a one day move to a new high when that is all we will hear about, as it heads towards its wave 5 of 3 target near 6.75 in the months ahead.

usdcny310516


Copper

Copper has stayed below the 40dema at 2.13$. Wave 3 can start to extend lower from here. It would require breaking the lower channel at 2.038$, Wave iii down would go to 1.885. What I cannot rule out yet is that wave ii up goes above 2.13 to 2.154$ before wave iii down can start. So a confirmation is needed for that.

copper010616


Crude

Crude - The alternate counts I have discussed are marked here. Either way the current move up appears complete and momentum has been diverging with a sell signal. The Sep2015 high of 50.92 remains a major resistance which coincides with the 66% retracement. A double top yesterday on hourly charts near the 50.20$ mark is a high to watch out. A move below 47.26 the most recent swing low would reverse the higher top bottom formation and be the first sign of a trend reversal.

crude010616


FTSE

FTSE - retraced 61.8% in 3 waves and wave ii should be complete. The next move should be down in wave iii below the May low of 6050 towards 6930 or lower.

ftse010616


S&P - a-b-c complete

S&P completes an expanded flat in wave ii up at 2103.48 so wave iii down should be due next from this level.

snp010616


ADR Index - retracement done

The world ADR index also complete a small 3 wave rise in wave ii retracing 61.8% and hitting the upper Bollinger band on the daily chart. Wave iii down should be next. The neckline is near 120, which once broken would make the pattern a head and shoulders top.

adr010616
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Rohit Srivastava
www.indiacharts.com
For accurate market forecasting. Market forecasting is a study of past data to assess
future probable outcomes. It is our endeavour to discuss high probability outcomes for
traders and investors. However this is not a solicitation to buy or sell stocks futures or
options or any security. Trading in any financial market should be done with sound
knowledge and the help of a qualified investment adviser. Stocks based on the Elliott
wave model are based on the Fibonacci fractal of the market and momentum indicators,
Price levels are based on Fibonacci maths and are only indicative of what the mathematical
model throws up. We may hold positions in the stocks/markets discussed and are
interested in the views and opinions expressed. This is not a recommendation to buy/sell.
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