USDCNY

I am reiterating my previous view on the CNY here. Wave 5 up started in April and now that it is making a new high the media is taking note. The move is not over and points to 6.75 as the fibonacci target near the upper end of the rising channel.

USDGBP

A month ago most thought the GBP would be hammered into the Brexit vote and then bottom on that day, But the exact reverse happened because the currency never declined in the run up to the vote. Now that it is declining, it has in a day exceeded my wave 5 target for 3=1 [0.74], so we should consider wave 3 extending to 1.618 times wave 1. That would mean the USDGBP going to 0.81.

So far the Brexit event has been nothing more than a currency event, the rest will take time to play out. It is like the CNY devaluation last year that triggered the previous stock market rout. The two day big move can be followed by a brief correction though in the near term but as the dollar rally in general continues the bias should remain positive for the pair.

USDAUD

USDAUD started wave III up breaking past the moving averages.Next stop 1.433

USDCAD

USDCAD completed a triangle at the bottom of wave 4 and has now broken out of it. Wave 5 up should have started and we should head towards 1.47 in the months ahead

Russel 2000

The Russel 2000 of small stocks for the US market sold off from a key retracement level to break down from an expanding triangle. Closing below the neckline it creates room for further declines in the days ahead. A pullback to kiss the neckline is possible but we should go to the neckline target of 1000.

Jakarta Composite

World equities are only retracing back to 61.8% or making a pull back to broken trendlines as shown in the Jakarta composite below. Once done wave C down would kick off.

Europe One bullish Alternate

One bullish alternate wave count for the ADR index that would fit even the FTSE is this. The fall from the April high to the Brexit low is 3 waves and if you mark the entire structure as A-B-C then a larger degree counter trend move can occur with a final rally up completing a larger 3-3-5 pattern. So a 5 wave rally to the upper end of the channel can develop if the Brexit low is protected and a rally develops. It is however too early to say this fractal is fairly possible. We need to watch for a clear impulsive rise even down to an hourly chart to judge that any up move is worth paying attention to. So far that has not happened but if it does this would be the best thing that the bulls can wish for right now.

Dow monthly MACD

The Monthly chart of the Dow remains in a losing momentum mode for months as many gyrations in the near term have not resulted in a larger trend either way so far. In a way we did see that in the year 2000 as well.

Dax

With all the volatility around world markets, the FTSE was the wild west of European markets gyrating within a 10% range from high to low. But everywhere else the bounce so far is small. Even Dax just achieved the target I put out on Tuesday, at 38.2% retracement the Dax could very well be in wave 3 down. 

While deciphering what happened to Brexit and what happens next remember this chart.

Dollar Index

The Dollar remained in a narrow range. The long term question is whether the 5 wave decline from Nov-Apr last year was a leading diagonal or wave C of 4. And similarly for the current rise where C=A is achieved is the up move complete or will wave C now extend sub-dividing into further 5 waves. Some more upside in the dollar is what I do expect before any reversal but minimum requirements have been met. Waiting for a clear signal