Complimentary copy of yesterdays IC Mornings
Published: Wed, 07/13/16
Including the very important Gold and Silver updates. Gold and Silver are now being recognised as important asset classes
I made the forecast in Nov-Dec of 2015 itself that a long term bottom maybe in place. We are now witnessing a correction
the first since the rally from 1050. But the best might still lie ahead. Stay up to date with the trends that matter
Too many people are focused only on Nifty including me but I have over time widened my Asset exposure to include
USDINR and Gold which are two markets that I think are in a bull market. Also there are Value wave Stocks that
may do well from time to time. But this is not a broad based bull market in stocks and Nifty is not as trending as it used
to be. Small bursts and then dead zones. The contraction in volatility might not last forever but has been around long
enough for anyone to feel the frustration. That has not changed the big picture view of the Macro market environment.
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S&P and Nasdaq CompositeMy target for S&P at 2130-2145 was achieved. But that we saw a all time high reading on this index has everyone back asking the bull market question. I think it is too early to conclude anything. I showed a last week also a chart showing the US VIX. Put it together after Brexit the US market bounced back as sharply. At that time the July rally took the Nasdaq Composite to a new all time record high in July 2015, That high is still the all time high. The chart of S&P shows weekly momentum with negative divergences and price near the upper Bollinger band. the Intraday high made a new all time record high after Brexit. But with these levels and indicators we need to watch if it is still a negative divergence top or a new move, and it is too early to say that this is a resumption of the bull case. Not just the S&P but most US indices are probably completing an expanding triangle at the recent highs right now till proven otherwise. This is the Nasdaq composite, a series of 3 waves so far. |
GoldDaily momentum crossed back to the sell side and the hourly chart shows a clear 5 wave decline as shown below. so the bias short term remains down. In terms of wave count we should either start wave 2 of 3 down are wave (c) of an extreme case of an expanded flat where wave (b) extended to 161.8% of wave (a). It is rare so we will simply watch what happens on the way down before choosing the final marking. |
Silver McxFirst two retracements for Silver Mcx are at 46480 and 44935 |
Gold MCX Daily
The 20/40 day averages are the first set of support levels. 32460 the high seen in 2012 is acting as a resistance.
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