BSE 500 Bank Nifty CRB index Euro Nasdaq 100

Published: Fri, 08/12/16

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The Complete Technical Analysis
Dear ,

Crazy week because it was both eventful and nothing. The trading range of the Nifty got narrower but stocks were all over the place. Why the index and stocks together do not reflect a trend like the old days remains a mystery. But there are lots of good observations that matter below on the BSE 500, Bank nifty Metals etc.

Also remember the Long Short report is out and it is a Long weekend so great time to catch up with ''THE BIG PICTURE'' as the title goes.

Good Luck!


Weekly Candles

As we head into a Long weekend here are some end of week observations

The BSE 500 closed down for the week with an engulfing bear candlestick so that should end the post Brexit 5 wave rally that started with an engulfing bull.

 bse500

The Small cap index closed the second consecutive week down and failed to surpass a trendline of previous major tops.

 sc120816

The Sensex closed the week positive but the Nifty Negative. Another doji week for most indices. Midcap index closed positive Small cap negative and so on. Bank nifty was down last week and close up this week but is in the same range with a Hanging Man [A hammer candlestick that develops at the end of a rally]. A hammer means that the open and close are near the highs but the the low of the week was much lower as seen below. A close below the low of the hanging man pattern marks the trapping of bulls.

 bnifty120816

What does all this mean? Get the Big Picture with the Long Short Report published this week.



Hang Seng

Hang Seng index is also in wave v of its rally from the June low.

hsi100816


CRB Index

The CRB index completes wave iv at the upper end of a falling channel to start wave v down towards 174. 

crb110816


BSE Metals

There is no saying that the Metal stocks have had a dream run. But the entire rise is 3 waves best marked as a-b-c. And we are now in wave v of c and close to the upper channel line. Once this wave completes a larger wave B up completes and then we should start a larger wave C down back into the bear market for metal stocks. So like no body was bullish metals in Jan now nobody is bearish metals but EW shows that as the likely course.

metals110816


Nasdaq 100

Multiple trendlines coming together on the 2 year chart near 4850 for the Nasdaq 100. Should be a crucial level/resistance to watch.

nasdaq120816


Euro

The Euro made a lower top in wave ii [1.1192] and the trend should still be considered down. 1.097 is the lower end of the channel.

euro120816


30 year T Bonds

The US 30 year treasury bonds shows a 5 waves down in wave i. A sell off started yesterday and if it continues below the recent low then wave iii down may have started. This would mean higher yields. Remember that recently the 30 year was at a record high but the 10 year was not, and that is a major long term inter market divergence over a 3 year period. So if yields start off higher from here this maybe a very important long term top in place.

tnotes120816


Nickel Mcx

Nickel has been losing momentum with each push higher and has remained in sell mode with multiple negative divergences. 706 is the immediate support and below that 688 is the lower Bollinger band support.

nickel120816
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Rohit Srivastava
www.indiacharts.com
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