Dollar Index

The Dollar broke out of a falling channel so it should mark the start of a larger move up, and only minor wave i up so far. The move should eventually go beyond the 97.62 high seen in July.

Reliance Inds

RIL broke past the 1045 resistance I wrote about so here is the next best case scenario. RIL is in a very large triangle since 2009. So it has made many rallies since early 2015 but each one ended abruptly and in 3 waves meaning corrective and not a new up trend. All these moves now fit an ending triangle in wave E of the larger triangle. So the current move can go to the point where all 3 trendlines meet including the blue channel of the recent rise. That is between 1090-1100-1120. Somewhere in that range wave E up should end and turn lower towards 900.

BSE Midcap

Next equality level for BSE Midcap index is at 13457

Crude

Crude starts wave iii down. Next support near 45.50, and if broken then next level is 41.50

Gold MCX Daily

Nifty is close to the previous swing low of wave a, Comex gold broke 1314 and is extending lower so the 20 week average at 30588 once broken we would now extend to the lower end of the channel near 29930.. 

USDZAR

USDZAR is starting to rally on strong volumes and so wave 4 ended at the lower end of the channel and wave 5 up longer term is unfolding. Breakout from the channel is above 15.21

USDSGD

USDSGD - broke out in a 5 wave rise. The impulse move marks start of long term wave 3 up that will eventually extend beyond 1.445 

USDAUD

USDAUD breaks out of a the wave 2 decline trendline and should start wave 3 of 5 up to a high above 1.40

CAC

One more push up in Europe should complete wave C of a counter trend move in European stocks.

Nifty Daily

Heavy volumes as we attempt to go above 8780 so lets give it one more day. Once we can sustain then maybe the target moves up a bit. This is a precarious situation Given the big volume spike in the face of heavy positions. Staying above 8641 [20dma] keep bullish alternates open, and holding above 8800 over the next few days allow raising the bar to 8900-9000. At the end of the day we did close above 8780 the trendline of the highs on volume but we do not know if the volumes were breakout or distribution. Hourly wave counts are not clear enough to conclude. So watch if prices dip below 8780 again and if they do 8641 does not break on closing basis. A close below 8641 is a sign that the recent move was a false breakout and a bull trap.

8780 was surpassed and holding above it we would target the larger channel line above 8900. Below 8780 8696 is the first support.

The Momentum swing is up to 60 so trend remains up here.

Bank nifty reached the upper channel line in a five wave move on hourly charts so this can be complete. Alternatively we dip in wave iv and wave v is still pending. A move below 19496 would rule out that wave v up is pending. A break of the lower channel line at 19388 would be a trend reversal confirmation. No higher target till we breakout of the channel above 19950 or take support at a lower level to make a higher bottom.