Dear Members,

GIPCL

Guj Industrial Power - Value Wave Investment

I covered this stock long back as having completed wave 2. While it has started a move up the initial move till Jan was corrective and so I have marked wave 2 circle to the Feb low. The move up from there has been lethargic but a series of higher tops and bottoms with the most recent swing low near 84. So I cannot rule out wave 3 up started till prices fall below 84 and break the ongoing trend. A slow advance can sometimes end up later as a larger move and continue. At the same time we should be watchful when momentum is lacking. Failure to continue higher can mean that we are still in the larger wave 2 with 100-54 being the over all range for price up and down for months. For that right now 84 is a good pivot to watch.

Nasdaq 100

The Nasdaq 100 is at the fag end of wave C of 2 up as seen on this weekly chart. This index fell clearly in 5 waves last year and most of the losses have been recovered but will we make a lower top? This remains on watch for calling a wave 3 decline for the Tech sector globally.

Gold Bugs Index

The Gold Bugs index was covered many times last year under gold and silver updates. And it made perfect sense as the index more than doubled. And if you did get into the Gold Mining funds available in India like the DSP Blackrock Gold you doubled your money. Now the Gold Bugs index has completed wave 1 and the next move lower maybe wave 2 down. The depth can be anything. I would not look to see a deep cut but wave 2 is usually the steepest. So 50% or 61.8% retracements are normal here. Till there is fresh evidence that this move is going on I think the previous triangle range which is a major resistance should keep prices down for a while. Remember that wave 1 means that the trend has turned up and after wave 3 we will get an even bigger move up. Stay tuned.

USDSGD

USDSGD should be in early stages of a long term wave 3 up move. Wave ii complete minor wave iii up started. We should initially test 1.38 in the near term.

 The implications of a larger wave 3 advance over the next 1-2 years is a move to 1.55. Here wave 2 retraced 50% and wave 1 was a leading diagonal. A leading diagonal is when the 5 waves of an impulse are overlapping each other. This is usually found in wave 1 or A at the start of a trend. Being wave 3 we cannot rule out extentions so 1.55 could end up being conservative.

ADR Index - Pull the Trigger

The ADR index remains below its April highs with lower tops from there. I marked that as wave 4. Recently we have seen attempts to break out of the falling channel as the US indices hit new all time highs. But this index has not confirmed that move. A push above the channel lines has occurred but we need to watch if the lower tops formation holds out. Till then my preferred count is of wave 2 of 5 up and wave 3 of 5 waiting to get started.

S&P

The US S&P completed a 3 wave rise. The next move needs to be watched. If this is a-b-c then we should see more weakness, if impulse then one more new high. Early to say.

Volatility waiting to explode

I hope you are tuned in to the Post Brexit calm, Volatility explosion. The VIX ticked up yesterday lets see if it becomes a trend. 

Crude

Crude formed a triangle pattern and broke down below it in overnight trade [blue lines], so the next wave lower should have started. A break of the recent swing of 44.42 should trigger a move to the next support near 38$.

Silver

Silver took support near the previous swing low at 19.20$. It is possible to mark the pattern above that level as a triangle just completing now. The upside should be capped near 20.15, and downside below 19.20 to 17.80.