Gold MCX Daily

The wave count does not change till the 30560 low of wave 4 is broken so this has become a very deep retracement. The falling trendline of the highs is at 31270 as the breakout point from this range.

Healthcare / Pharma

BSE Healthcare index - broke its long term trendline in early 2015 and the recovery since has only been a slow pullback to the broken line which is acting as a strong resistance. Staying below this line the trend should be down for Pharma stocks as this index indicates. A wave C decline of equal degree of the one seen late last year would be seen.

Dollar Pairs

Yesterday a lot of Dollar pairs jumped making the dollar stronger even as the Euro the largest component of the dollar index was flat leaving open options. But this shows the pressure on the dollar against other pairs has eased especially those that are not in the index. EM pairs almost accross the board were down against the dollar. Here is a chart of the USDAUD that shows this trend as it jumped above the August high. Simpilar trends in SGD BRL MXN etc.

Crude

Crude sold off again and so far daily momentum remains in sell mode despite last weeks rally, so maintain wave counts for 36$, A drop below 45.56 and then 43 would further confirm.

Copper

Copper unlike crude is at the lower end of a triangle and Monday spiked lower to touch the lower trendline and bounce back as well. So all touchpoints on the triangle are complete. 2.06 holding we should be on our way to start a move beyond 2.13 towards the upper line at 2.257. And since this looks like a bullish triangle stay open to a breakout above 2.257 

If we breakout of the triangle the target goes up further to 2.45

US 30 year T Bonds

The US 30 year T Bonds is where most of the damage is taking place, far more than the 10 year. This is also called the Long bond and indicates rising Long term yields. 

Nickel

Nickel completed a 3 wave rise in wave b and wave c down to 615 started. High of wave b is 695 and MAs are at 675.

Spain

Spain sold off from a reverse parallel channel. If it has topped then this is a rare case of a running flat. Running because it is an upward correction but in a downward slope.

Mexico

Mexico saw a rally past the trendline of the highs last month but now it has fallen back. So for now it looks like a false breakout, a throw over in wave E of the ending pattern that has ended.

Bank nifty

Bank nifty broke the wave iii low in the spot market so it is developing a 5 wave decline. On the futures chart that I post daily the low is at 19760 below it bank nifty would also break the rising channel and indicate a fall to 19180 near the wave iv area. The 5 wave decline itself would be the first sign of a trend reversal in the market.

Dow - The trick question

So has the Dow topped or will it make one more new high before it is done? Yesterday the Dow did not break its previous swing low and in doing so we can argue that it can make this one more wave E up to a new high before the pattern is complete.

However the ADR index now has its first clear 5 wave decline on the daily chart which should mean that the top is in for Global equity. The recent decline in bond prices and jump in the VIX does not as yet look like a flash in the pan as yet. So which one will be right? No perfect answer here but I would respect the 5 wave decline. This means we should only get a bouce back in wave II to the blue line that was broken and near the 20dma at 128.80.

US Steel

Not the first time I have covered US Steel, as an indicator of Commodity stocks. But this time we have really lagged behind it. The only reason is that India went on to take protectionist measures for its domestic industry. But in a weakening environment that should be a temporary Band Aid. US still broke a trendline and has been sliding right through support levels. So should domestic commodity producers.

NYSE Composite

Covering it after a long pause. But it remains important for its different wave count with an ending pattern at the top of 2015 and the fact that the NYSE Composite along with the Dow transports and the Russel 2000, have not gone back above their respective 2015 highs along with the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq. So it remains a massive inter market divergence. The rising trendline is at 10460 below which the trend would have reversed into a third wave of a bear market. Weekly momentum has already given up as an advance warning. 

Thailand SET

Thai market broke the rising channel from the JAN low in the recent sell off.

ADR index

The Bank of New York ADR index now shows a 5 wave decline on the daily chart so it maybe possible to say that wave the larger B up is over. This means that the larger trend down in wave C to new lows may have started on the World index of equities. Within that wave C of B was truncated or short and did not reach the upper channel line. It did reach the weekly Bollinger bands and so the minimum requirements are met for the wave.

DJ Euro Stoxx 50

The Euro Stoxx index has broken down from what looks like a ending triangle pattern over the last two months. Many indices in Europe show this triangular pattern. What varies is the length of wave C. This ending pattern forms in wave C however some indices like the FTSE have a big wave C, DAX where C=A, and others like Italy Spain etc where C is shorter than A, as is also the case in the Euro Stoxx 50. The ending pattern should mean that wave C is over and the next major move down has now started.