Sugar Euro Turmeric S&P VIX
Published: Thu, 11/03/16
03 - NOVEMBER - 2016
Dear Members,
Bond yields have started to fall however that often accompanies risk off trades and a sell off in global equities. It is also associated with the falling dollar. Many of these trends have been slowly manifesting themselves into prices and are discussed in this weeks updates. Get our updates on Precious metals and commodities and the Inflation trade with Indiacharts Insiders.
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SugarSugar prices completed a 5 wave move in a channel and the lower end of the channel broke. So till the next wave up shows up the third wave up is complete and correcting. I have marked it as A-B-C, but it can also be 1-2-3, We have to wait for this correction to complete however to be sure.
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S&P 500S&P 500 - has been forming a descending triangle. This pattern can be bearish in classic TA but in the form of a pennant or in a 4th wave position can be bullish as well. What we need to see is what happens at the support level of 2110. If it holds then wave E of an ending pattern may start towards the 2266 level.
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Volatility on the RiseThe US VIX is rising again and its is time to ponder over this chart again. In the last week I mentioned that the US market may go higher but this chart says do not count on it. Why? Twice before last year the Dow formed a descending triangle and broke the lower end. In Aug 2016 I anticipated it and in Dec I thought otherwise. So this time I think I should step back and wait to see what the market intends to do. A break as you can see can cause a big one sided sell off. We saw 2 last year. If this happens then Nifty will not be able to protect the 8500 level and break down to 8200-8000.
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US 10 year T NotesUS bonds saw the Daily sentiment index drop to 10%, meaning 90% of advisors polled were bearish. A near extreme. The daily RSI shows a positive divergence and the fall so far is 3 waves and can be marked as a-b-c- complete. So on weekly charts I can come up with this. Wave D complete as 3 waves down and another leg up in wave E up starts. This could be very bearish for the dollar and bullish for commodities especially precious metals. However I do not know what it can mean for equities. Maybe short term positive as it eases the pressure on yields,
However bonds and US equities are mostly inversely correlated. Any major up move here can signal bearish for stocks.
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TurmericTurmeric monthly chart shows prices fell to the lower end of a rising channel and the Monthly Bollinger band at 6700. The next move should be higher to 8200 at the 20 month average, the upper Bollinger band at 9600 and the upper channel line at 13350
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EuroEuro is moving up on strong volumes so a good sign. The breakout from the A-B-C decline is above the trendline at 1.12, and the next significant swing after that is at 1.136
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CopperCopper paused near the 2.23 hurdle. And wave i could complete here. Wave ii down can take support at the first trendline at 2.19.
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Rohit Srivastava
www.indiacharts.com
For accurate market forecasting. Market forecasting is a study of past data to assess future probable outcomes. It is our endeavor to discuss high probability outcomes for traders and investors. However this is not a solicitation to buy or sell stocks futures or options or any security. Trading in any financial market should be done with sound knowledge and the help of a qualified investment adviser. Stocks based on the Elliott wave model are based on the Fibonacci fractal of the market and momentum indicators, Levels are based on Fibonacci maths and are only indicative of what the mathematical model throws up. This is not a research report. We are not investment advisors This is not a recommendation to buy/sell.
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Value Wave Stocks discusses the short term trading set ups that we use while taking our trading decisions. Value wave Investments. discusses the long term set ups that we use while taking our investment decisions. We hold investments in these stocks and are interested in these opinions. This is not the only reason considered while taking our actions. Kindly take the help of a qualified investment advisor before trading. Rohit Srivastava is a Fund Manager of a trading PMS fund at Sharekhan Ltd.
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