Nifty Weekly Update
Published: Mon, 11/21/16
21 - NOVEMBER - 2016
Dear Members,
The Weekly Nifty Update excerpted from the weekly Update that also covers some important sentiment data is here. Also the recently Updated Long term outlook in case you missed the changes.
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21 NOVEMBER 2016
The weekly elliott wave commentary with Targets and levels is published every Sunday to Subscribers, This is only an excerpt.
MEDIUM TERM
Nifty has broken both the 20 and 40 week averages, and with no support or pattern from last year working there is no point looking for bounces, the trend down remains strong and is spreading to the broad market quickly now. Nifty is making lower tops and bottoms... READ MORE
LONG TERM
THE LONG & SHORT REPORT :- The LSR is our detailed monthly forecast of where the markets are headed, including sentiment indicators, inter market analysis, wave counts and a global perspective . Report now available TO Indiacharts Subscribers.
Long term Perspective and Basis: Updated 05 NOV 2016
Having experienced the 1990's business cycle in real time I am able to plot the sector rotation and time cycles and compare it to the post 2008 business cycle. There are too many similarities from a business cycle perspective even as the market volatility this time is far lower at the index level. The Late summer bubble in 2015 is similar to 2000 in that it is narrow and backed only by new highs in a few sectors. Time wise 2016 was 3 years fro the 2013 bottom but we are not yet deep into the bear market or near the bottom
So the last part of the time cycle is 9 years from the 2008 high and that goes into 2017. Like 1992+9=2001. Am not putting any month to it but it could be late into 2017 as the next leg of the bear market might just be getting started.
The chart below shows the Long term wave count of the Sensex ending a 5th wave at the 2015 top. The fall from there was a complex corrective in wave w, and not this year we have rallied to retrace almost all losses in wave x. Sept we ended 3 waves up and closed down for the month mostly marking the end of wave x. The chart below shows the blue trendline from 2002 was broken in 2015 and the 2016 rally simply kisses it from below and stops. So far it looks like the ideal stopping point from where wave y down to new lows below wave w can start..
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Rohit Srivastava
www.indiacharts.com
For accurate market forecasting. Market forecasting is a study of past data to assess future probable outcomes. It is our endeavor to discuss high probability outcomes for traders and investors. However this is not a solicitation to buy or sell stocks futures or options or any security. Trading in any financial market should be done with sound knowledge and the help of a qualified investment adviser. Stocks based on the Elliott wave model are based on the Fibonacci fractal of the market and momentum indicators, Levels are based on Fibonacci maths and are only indicative of what the mathematical model throws up. This is not a research report. We are not investment advisors This is not a recommendation to buy/sell.
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Value Wave Stocks discusses the short term trading set ups that we use while taking our trading decisions. Value wave Investments. discusses the long term set ups that we use while taking our investment decisions. We hold investments in these stocks and are interested in these opinions. This is not the only reason considered while taking our actions. Kindly take the help of a qualified investment advisor before trading. Rohit Srivastava is a Fund Manager of a trading PMS fund at Sharekhan Ltd.
that has active open long and short positions in the futures markets at any point of time. The opinions here are for your education and understanding only of how we identify stocks to trade/invest in. We change our opinion daily and even hourly. Any actions taken by you are at your own understanding and risk. We do not offer personalised advise or research of any kind.
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