The dollar has had a smart rally and in doing so has developed as a 3 wave advance from the May 2016 bottom. Marked as Waves A-B-C, wave B is a triangle. Wave C=A points to around 99. 70.7% retracement is at 98.65 So that is the first level for wave C to end. If it extends further then the upper yellow line is at 100.80. With the RSI already at 75 a few more gyrations should be enough to complete wave C closer to 98.65 near the March high.

The Euro Bottomed in Dec 2015 and since then many overlapping up and down moves have occurred. Despite that we are still above the 61.8% retracement mark. There are two alternate wave counts to consider. Either the entire pattern is a triangle in wave 5 down and ending before a major up trend can start for the Euro. Or we are in wave 2 down where wave 1 up was a leading diagonal. The 61.8% mark at 1.095 is an important support for this thesis to watch near term. If it holds we may see the trend up start for the Euro right away.

USDTHB, in the last update I was expecting the next wave to start in FEB, those lows broke and I have not put out an update. But here is the big picture. The decline from the 2015 top has formed a triangular pattern which is wave 4 at larger degree. We should have started wave 5 of 3 to the upper channel. Prices are attempting a breakout of the triangle this week. A move above 35.25 on a closing basis would set us up for 39 in the months ahead.

USDTWD - Taiwan Dollar - has fallen in wave 2 and retraced 61.8% in a zig-zag. Breakout of the channel is above 31.90. That would confirm the start of wave 3 up heading to new highs eventually above the 34 mark.

USDCNY - paused in June wave 5 could have truncated but last week we broke to a new 52 week high, so clearly wave 5 is not over and we are heading to the upper end of the channel near 6.89 in the months ahead.

Crude is forming a expanding triangle in wave iv with support at 49.36, holding this wave v of C up to 55 may unfold next.

Copper has retraced 61.8% in wave ii and the next sign of a move up should be start of wave iii to 2.27 or higher.

Platinium - Moves with the Precious metals. It has fallen clearly in A-B-C, where wave C shows a clear 5 wave decline into the 66% retracement mark and RSI is 20 making it very oversold. Should bottom here with the PMs.

Soy Meal [CBT], topped in May and has been falling since. Now it has retraced 78.6% [294] and developed 2 positive divergences on the RSI momentum indicator. This is good reason to believe that wave 2 down maybe ending and wave 3 up can start. 313 the 40dema would  be the key resistance level to break out above to further confirm this view.

The ADR index closed below the neckline of the swings from the recent months and should have started the next wave down, as wave C of B up completed without achieving the target of the upper channel line. Wave B was a regular flat [3-3-5]. The truncation in wave C shows a loss of upward momentum. The move lower should test the lower end of the channel at 118 and eventually go below the wave A low of 108.