Metals

Base metal prices halted their fall yesterday either at the 40dema, or lower after an a-b-c like decline. Watch a few days to see if the lows hold and momentum indicators confirm that a bottom is indeed in place. Here is the chart of lead to give you an idea.

Philippines

One of the markets off most peoples radar would be Philippines but it appears like the worst performer, giving up on the wave B rise quickly since july. Wave B was lower than wave 5 even though it retraced a lot. Wave C is a 5 wave decline that should continue till it breaks the wave A low and the neckline at 6310. It is right now in wave V of 3 of C.

Singapore

The Straits Time Index of Singpore is just starting to sell off from the high of a possible triangle that is now complete. The SGD has been falling relentlessly but its effect on the stock market may just be beggining. Singapore would complete wave B in a triangle and wave C=A points all the way down to 2126. The upper line of the triangle is at 2970.

Dow Long term

This is a chart of the Dow since 1929, with a reworked count. The Dow is in its 5th wave since 2009. The thought that the rise is a B wave was discarded at many fronts. First by going above the 138.2% of A mark, and second by the new highs this year that make it a 5 wave rise as seen in the next chart below. Note that each US index has variations. S&P crossed the 138.2% mark much earlier. The NYSE composite can be marked as a 5th wave in 2008  and has not seen significant new highs since. The Dow is also pushing against the upper line of the rising channel since 1932. This line was resisted by both wave 1 and 3 circled in the past. The 3rd wave of the 5th broke above it and now the 5th is pushing at it. This change also ruled out the possibility that 2000-2016 is an expanding triangle [some call it Megaphone], because elliott wave wise a triangle is 3-3-3-3-3, and with the 2009-2016 move now 5 waves it is not 3.

You have seen my recent notes that the 5th wave of 5 is an ending diagonal on the S&P and NYSE Composite, at least till now. However the Dow has gone up much more and does not fit that pattern. The Dow however is at the upper end of a rising channel from 2009 within which it has 5 waves and at the upper end of the channel the targets are met. While prices are stretching we are near the quarterly upper Bollinger band above 20k. So the question remains when will the 5th wave roll over and turn down. The S&P did not confirm the new high in the Dow yesterday and that can be a short term inter market divergence that can be giving clues. Daily momentum is also now falling and negatively diverging from price across indices. So we wait to see. However to come up with a valid count for the Dow instead of a ending pattern, I have taken the 2016 initial recovery as a running triangle in wave 4 subdivision. This awkward but no other choice. Alternately if the Dow continues to rock higher then it would extend and breakout of the channel as well on the upside. EWIs current counts do suggest that. But I wont jump to that conclusion yet as other indices do not confirm. Also with the 3rd wave extended there is no need for the 5th wave to extend. In fact wave 5=38.2% of waves [1-3], yellow lines =20130, and that is the minimum Fibonacci requirement when the 3rd is extended. So till we get new evidence for a new rally on the Dow, we should be looking at the end of the 5th wave of the 5th wave Long term here.

Euro

The Euro completed a 5 wave decline from the Sept highs however the fall is overlapping in structure and therefore I consider it an ending pattern. If indeed this 5 wave fall is part of a larger decline in the Euro we will get at least a retracement rally for the Euro before it falls again. However My view at the end of years of decline is for a possible long term bottom here. So the days and weeks ahead would give more evidence. For now we held the 138.2% of D ratio support in wave E that was truncated. The RSI has a positive divergence, and a move above 1.479 the wave iv of E high would be further bullish. In this marking it is interesting to note that wave E=A and C=1.618*waveA. Good ratios.

Dow Tranports

Dow Transports closed below the wave i low and the 20dma so the near term view should be for a move to 8900 near the green 40dema.

Realty

The Realty index has not been participating in the fall so far so with momentum rolling over maybe it is time. C=A for the index points down to 951. 

CNX IT

The CNX IT index faced strong resistance at the 20 week average. Most stocks did something similar. Also Infosys was at 61.8% of the previous fall. So the IT index shows wave 3 down may have started here. Momentum rolled over and the previous swing high at 10500 is a major resistance. 3=1 for the index is down to 8337.

Brazil

Brazil - broke a series of swing lows as it kicks off a correction to the 5 wave advance it made in 2016. I cant put a target right now but retracement of 38.2% is 55000 and 50% is 51400.

Mexico

Mexico - Big attempt to break out from a long term triangle pattern [pink lines] but is now below it and has formed a head and shoulders top. Wave 2 complete wave 3 down started as it broke the rising trendline from the Nov low. So the neckline at 44000 should also break and we headd to 42700 and 40000 in the weeks ahead.

Hang Seng

Hang Seng - broke the wave 1 low to start a 3rd wave down. 3=1 is down to 20760. In the process the rising channel at 21600 may also break and that would indicate a move to 19500.

Jakarta

After the triangle breakdown and bounce the next move lower appears to have started in wave 3 that should break the 5043 low and maybe head to 4888, where 3=1

USDSGD

USDSGD is in a long term 3rd wave. Overall it is heading to 1.55. The rally has been rapid with few corrections in between and should continue. 

Coffee [CSCE Futures]

Coffee retraced 61.8% in wave 2. Wave 1 was a leading diagonal as it was an overlapping impulse wave. Wave 3 should be pretty one sided upwards to new highs.