Lead Gold Crude

Published: Fri, 01/27/17

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The Complete Market Analysis
Dear ,

The dollar saw its first clear sell off in weeks. Gold rallied and the metals continue to shine. The Nifty started on the wrong foot and proved everyone wrong including me. But there is always an alternate wave count and you have to change. This time at least I was long on inflation meaning the commodities that I have been saying are at the end of their bear market for all of last year.




Gold

Gold prices ticked up above the point marked as wave I. So are we still in wave II down? There are times that prices extend without a pause so the question is where to consider that. The only pattern where wave b of II goes higher is called an expanded flat. In that prices do not go above the Fibonacci ratios of 123.6% or 138.2% of wave a. So the levels are 1224 and 1228. A top near these levels can mean that we are still in wave II down and will correct to 1180 before going higher. But once we cross 1228 then we have to consider that wave III up started already without a halt. While that is unusual it is not impossible.

gold-230117


Lead Mcx

Lead MCX - Wave III up started with III=I pointing to 183. 152.9 the recent low is the pivot that should hold for the view that wave III up has started and should go much higher from here.

lead-240117



Crude

51.50 and 51 are critical support levels for crude. A close below it would imply a change in wave count in favor of wave B forming as a flat. the reason is that after many weeks the daily chart is still not breaking out and momentum is still in sell mode. Positions are getting close to an extreme making the move higher difficult so prices may react. A break of key supports could trigger a move lower towards 45 or 42$ before wave C up can start. On the upside 55.89 can act as a resistance.

crude-240117


US 10 year T Notes

Yesterday I considered wave ii complete for the US 10 year however wave ii is still forming and wave iii as not started as yet.

notes-250117


USDAUD

After a 5 wave fall in the USDAUD we could see wave 2 up as the first serious retracement in the dollar upto 1.34 or 1.365

usdaud-270117


USDCNY

USDCNY - fell in 3 waves, i.e. a-b-c, and started up again. Wave iv maybe complete and wave v of III up to 7.00 as the next target may have started. 7.0 is close to the upper channel line of the long term trend.

usdcny-270117


USDMXN

The Mexican Peso dropped in wave 2 of 3. It remains in a larger up trend. the next move higher should 3/3 and a sharp move higher beyond the 23 level.

usdmxn-270117


USDGBP

USDGBP may be completing wave C off a triangle in what looks like a triangle in formation. Wave D up will go to 0.83 near the upper trendline next, from the 0.788 support.

usdgbp-270117
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Rohit Srivastava
www.indiacharts.com
For accurate market forecasting. Market forecasting is a study of past data to assess future probable outcomes. It is our endeavor to discuss high probability outcomes for traders and investors. However this is not a solicitation to buy or sell stocks futures or options or any security. Trading in any financial market should be done with sound knowledge and the help of a qualified investment adviser. Stocks based on the Elliott wave model are based on the Fibonacci fractal of the market and momentum indicators, Levels are based on Fibonacci maths and are only indicative of what the mathematical model throws up. This is not a research report. We are not investment advisors This is not a recommendation to buy/sell.
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