Nifty Gold Silver Ratio Nasdaq Italy Dollar Maize Soy Bean

Published: Tue, 02/07/17

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The Complete Market Analysis
The Nifty continued to trend higher, the dollar continued to trend lower against expectations.
We are tracking Macro trends that are likely to extend into the future. Some trends are at an extreme and about to reverse near term as well. Stock and Sector rotation are likely to continue as we are not in a broad based bull market.
Global headwinds cannot be ignored

Today's updates include Commodity and Equity updates that are part of Indiacharts Insiders. Find out more at the links at the end.

Gold Silver Ratio

In deciding on Gold v/s Silver this chart makes it clear. Silver wins. The Gold Silver ratio is declining from the upper end of its long term range. Silver prices are therefore rising faster than Gold, except for the recent pause during the correction in Precious metals. The indicator should drop much further when prices move higher. Silver usually moves up 2-3 times more than gold. The ratio can go from 70 to below 45 as it has before. But if you chose Silver remember that it is more volatile both ways. If you do not like volatility then Gold is always s safer instrument.

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Platinium

Platinium - Wave III up to 1070 starting. Support at 982

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Copper

Base metals have been correcting recently and that might continue till the next move up clearly shows up. That said the trend is up so I will post again on them as trends confirm. On copper too we have seen a correction and it is not certainly complete. But the correction is simply the 3rd wave subdividing into a 5 wave rise. 61.8% of wave 1 is at 2.54$. So that should be the important support level to keep in mind. 

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DJ Euro Stoxx 50

Europe is where the weakest link is, and European stocks were the worst hit yesterday. The DJ Euro Stoxx index started a minor wave iii decline as the DAX broke the previous swing low. So they are leading the way. I suspect another 3-4 % dip in Europe to the lower end of the rising channel as wave C up is complete. Logically this should be resumption of the bear market in Europe, with Italy at the lead with a wave 3 decline starrting.

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Nasdaq

US Nasdaq remains at its peculiar best. A 5 wave rally that fits contracting lines like a wedge. Waves 5<3<1, except that they do not overlap. Prices are at the upper end of the wedge. So it is risky unless prices blow off beyond into something else.

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Italy - Double Trouble

The trouble in Europe has its centre in places like Italy. Months ago I showed this chart of Italy, the point being that wave C down has started in a 5 wave decline. The last few months the Italian stock market was bouncing back in wave 2 of C and that appears mostly complete. As the pace of the decline picks up in wave 3 of C expect the effect to show up in most European markets. This is a major wave like the one in Greece in 2011-2012.
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Maize

Maize Yellow Red Quintal - as it says on NCDEX has started wave 3 up and wave 2 retraced 66% near 1350. It also formed a triangle at the base and has started making higher bottoms and going higher. 3=1 points to 1900 as the potential target over the next 6 months based on the Elliott Wave fractal.

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Soy Bean

Weekly chart of Soy Bean Quintal on Ncdex, wave 4 as anticipated in my last post is still forming and mostly complete. Prices did not touch the lower trendline of the triangle in wave 4 but the RSI was oversold for a while and has bounced out of it. Weekly momentum indicators have crossed over to the buy side. I believe wave 5 up may have now stared that should be a 6-12 month up move in Soy Bean and take prices to an all time high well above the 5000 mark seen in 2012. Initial resistance is at 3260 and then next major one at the triangle upper line near 4070. After that it should be to new highs.

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Dollar Index

The dollar index broke below the wave 4 swing low. Wave iii down should go to at least 97.18. However wave iii can be extended especially after wave i is a leading diagonal, so it can go to 1.618 times wave i. That means down to 95.

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USDAUD

The USDAUD broke its wave 1 low without much of a bounce. Wave 3 down has mostly started and should see it to new lows towards the 1.252 level, which is below the multiple lows of last year.

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USDTWD

The weak dollar is slowly rubbing off on most trends even in Asian currencies. Did wave 2 circle at larger degree end? When will 3 up start. We will just have to wait for some pattern to form. The initial advance that I identified did not work and now the USDTWD is falling so there is no point in calling a bottom till these pairs can diverge from the weak dollar trend that we are now witnessing across pairs. This said we are very close to 30.85 seen last year and also near 61.8% of the entire rally from 2013-2016. So we have to wait for a  sign near term that the low is in.

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USDZAR

USDDZAR - Broke down from its long term rising channel, that started in 2011, after completing 5 waves up. The move down in now in wave Z that can take it to the lower end of the falling channel since the 2016 top near 12. No strong dollar here.

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30 JANUARY 2017

The weekly elliott wave commentary with Targets and levels is published every Sunday to Subscribers, This is only an excerpt.

MEDIUM TERM

NIFTY ELLIOTT WAVE UPDATE 

Getting past the 8460 highs the market has written off the impact of demonitisation. The island gap was filled and now we are above the 20 week average. A larger trniangle structure could be in formation since 2015 as we explore the next best alternate pattern for Nifty...  READ MORE

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Rohit Srivastava
www.indiacharts.com
For accurate market forecasting. Market forecasting is a study of past data to assess future probable outcomes. It is our endeavor to discuss high probability outcomes for traders and investors. However this is not a solicitation to buy or sell stocks futures or options or any security. Trading in any financial market should be done with sound knowledge and the help of a qualified investment adviser. Stocks based on the Elliott wave model are based on the Fibonacci fractal of the market and momentum indicators, Levels are based on Fibonacci maths and are only indicative of what the mathematical model throws up. This is not a research report. We are not investment advisors This is not a recommendation to buy/sell.
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