BSE Metals Soy Meal Oil Euro Shanghai

Published: Fri, 01/20/17

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The Complete Market Analysis
Dear ,

It has been a dull week and looks like Nifty will end negative and stay below the 20 week average. I will discuss what the next move lower holds in today's Nifty Daily and a Long Short Update as things get interesting again.




Philippines

Philippines - PSE Composite, fell in 5 waves before the recent bounce. It was mostly a counter trend bounce in what is wave C of a bear market. This market remains a weak spot in Asia. The recent rally in wave 2 stopped at the 50% retracement mark and till we stay below it we may have already have started the next major wave lower. The big Picture below also shows a head and shoulders pattern Long term. Chances are that the next move lower will now break the neckline. For something this massive to happen Philippines must be going through some major crisis in the Asian region.

philipines-180117


Nikkei

The top in the dollar is also a bottom for the Yen and a top for the USDJPY contract that has been the main driver for Japan. The Nikkie index therefore has topped at the end of 3 waves at 78.6% retracement of the previous fall and another move lower may have started in wave C down at larger degree. The lower end of the channel is at 13800.

nikkei-180117


USDCNY

USDCNY - The Chinese Yuan is done with threatening the rest of the world for now. It completed a raly at the upper end of the long term channel and broke the rising trendline fro the Oct bottom [blue line], doing so has kicked off a deeper correction that can push it back to the lower end of the channel in a wave 4 correction. The lower end is at 6.76

usdcny180117


Infosys Update

A slight change to the Infosys wave count. The reason for change is that the recent bounce back from the November low took the form of a triangle, and triangles mostly occur in wave B. The change is the marking of wave 4 as a running triangle. So wave A ended at the November bottom. And wave B was a pull back to the wave 4 high and the Long term wedge trendline that was broken earlier. B is marked at 1037. The neckline of the triangle in B is at 966. The low of A is at 9014, C=A is at 728, as the important levels for the next 6 months. Or 3 months, I cant tell time.

infy-200117


Euro

Euro formed a leading diagonal, that means a rise that has the wave structure of a 5-3-5-3-5, and is therefore the first wave of a larger bullish move. The dip yesterday therefore is wave ii. With support at 1.3057 it is possible that wave ii is over. We can also get one more dip to test 1.054 before going higher but it is not a certainty. Once the next move up starts we should see it go test 1.087

euro200117



Soy Meal

Soy Mean Continuous has been itching to kick off wave III up. The next move higher may now have started as yesterdays move has broken out of the trendline of the highs and closed above it. Soy prices should move from 310 to 420 near the previous high in the 3rd wave on the CBT exchange.

soy-130117


Shanghai Composite

China starts another impulse wave down. Marked as wave 3, it has the potential to achieve equality of waves 1 and 3, 3=1= 2971 in the coming weeks. 3173 was the high for wave 2 that should hold.

china-130117


Soy Oil

Soy Oil - is in a larger upward advance that will sub divide into 5 waves. So far we are in the third wave and probably wave 5 of 3. The chart shows a good channel and prices were resisted at the upper channel a couple of times. The channel line is now near 760 as the next resistance. Fibonacci projections go to 770 and 804. The recent bottom was near 704.

soy-150117


Platinium

Platinium Spot prices can often give lead indications about the Precious metals space. The ending pattern at the end of wave C down on the chart was indicative of a possible bottom. Though it did take time and retraced more than I would like. But we now have an upward breakout into a 3rd wave. Wave 3 would retest the highs in the coming year.3=1 points to 1260$ as a potential level for the coming year. Near term there is support at 957$, The initial rally was impulsive and if it extends we will go to 1072$, in the coming weeks

platinium-150117



BSE Metals index

Metals - The BSE Metal index can be marked as 5 waves up so do not be surprised if a near term correction shows up. A 38% to 50% retracement is normal up to 10700 or 10500. However this should be the first impulse wave of a larger trend up for the sector. So will need to watch out for a re-entry point.

metals-170117
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Rohit Srivastava
www.indiacharts.com
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