Weekly Update

Published: Tue, 02/28/17

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Dear Members,

28 FEBRUARY 2017

Indiacharts Market Analysis including the Insiders updates on Silver, Aluminium mcx, among others, published over the last 7 days.

Nasdaq 100

The RSI moved up to 85 for the Nasdaq 100 as the RSI rises one way with price. There should be a knee jerk reaction sometime to release the overbought reading before the move goes on.

nasdaq-220217a

Euro

The Euro made a minor new low and bounced back. On the hourly chart its again broken out of a falling channel for the 3 day decline. So we have now retraced 70.70% of the rise in wave II. Wave III up should be next.

euro-230217

Nifty - Start with this

I have said Long on Inflation - but that is one sector, Metals. Will the market take other along? So as we lose momentum near 8940 now it is time to watch if this original first choice for a rally in wave E up is complete and can we make a major top. Alternately we are forming a bullish triangle and fall in wave E to the lower end near 8150-8200 before breakout to new highs. Which ever the case we will get an idea in the coming week. If the up move gains breadth and continues then we can expect 9240 and higher as per the bullish alternates but it is time to step back and see if the Breadth comes back. The last few days have seen poor participation. That combined with the dollar waiting to start its wave 3 rally, US bonds already in an up trend and US stocks reading 91% bulls at the highest reading in 3 years. Extreme bullish optimism calls for a correction first. So there are short term risks to consider. The Nifty daily RSI at 74 and Nasdaq at 85 are also high overbought readings that need to come off. So it is time to be cautious. At the same time maintain our Positive stance on precious metals especially if the dollar starts to drop.

nifty-230217

US 10 year T Notes

US T notes rallied, as expected since December. But as you see it is a slow moving animal. So as we broke out of a inverted H&S bottom yields will fall further in the coming months. Now unlike EWI I have marked the rise as I-II-III etc of Wave A, while they are marking a-b-c and expecting an immediate decline. I am considering a prolonged rise for bonds because that is what happened the last time as well on the long term chart below after the bottom in 2013. The larger view that you wont make a new high was true but the move up was 2 years long. Bonds are slow moving animals. So even now the counter trend move up could go on for months to come, and it is better to consider it as a larger A-B-C that will take its time before the next leg down shows up.

notes-250217

Silver

The Silver fractal has also subdivided where each leg is smaller than the previous one. The next max projection based on a potential extended wave 3 is for iii=i up to 19.47$

silver-270217

Aluminium Mcx

Aluminium prices broke out of a flag into wave iii of 3 . 3=1 points to 135 for the structure. 20dma is at 124.6 as support.

aluminium-280217

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Rohit Srivastava
www.indiacharts.com
For accurate market forecasting. Market forecasting is a study of past data to assess
future probable outcomes. It is our endeavor to discuss high probability outcomes for
traders and investors. However this is not a solicitation to buy or sell stocks futures or
options or any security. Trading in any financial market should be done with sound
knowledge and the help of a qualified investment adviser. Stocks based on the Elliott
wave model are based on the Fibonacci fractal of the market and momentum indicators,
targets are based on Fibonacci maths and are only indicative of what the mathematical
model throws up. This is not a recommendation to buy/sell.
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