Morgan Stanley Gold Zinc Euro Bonds

Published: Sun, 04/02/17

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Dear Members,

28 FEBRUARY 2017

Today's updates from the week includes an Insider update on the quarterly chart of Gold Zinc and the Euro

Morgan Stanley

The five wave decline on the daily chart of financials like Morgan Stanley is very clear. It means that after a brief bounce back in price, new lows should be in store.

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USDGBP

USDGBP is the only contract that still holds out a strong dollar view clearly. The pound completed a triangle as shown below and has most probably already started off into wave 5 up. This should break out of the triangle above 0.823 and then test the wave 3 high of 0.846

usdgbp300317

USDAUD

USDAUD - has been declining impulsively and the larger trend remains down. The recent bounce ended at 61.8% retracement [1.316] and we are seeing a decline again. The next move lower should be wave III of 3 down for the USDAUD and 3=1 points to as far as 1.234

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USDTWD

USDTWD continues to be in a large decline that is far from over. Wave Y down is in progress and C of Y points to 29.31 as the broader target for the move. Each of the moves has fit perfect channels.

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Zinc Mcx

Zinc Mcx prices found support near 177 a second time. The correction as a triangle maybe over or wave D up is unfolding. The upper trendline is at 195 and a move up would face resistance there. If the triangle is complete then we should breakout above 195 to higher levels.

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Euro

Euro - dipped sharply. I did write about the move in the dollar completing on Monday but this was a fast reversal. The Euro broke both the averages yesterday so 61.8% at 1.0648 is the key level for wave 2 down to take support and resume the move up. I am considering this as a correction to a larger move up developing. Else the 3 wave rise can be marked as a-b-c up complete and bearish. Once the Euro sell off halts there should be more clues about this.

euro-310317

US 30yr Bonds

US 30 year bonds are in the early stages of a rally. At a larger degree this is a counter trend move and will develop into A-B-C but for now we are in wave iv of a or 1 of a. The chart shows a triangle in wave iv. So we should push higher still into wave v up next.

bonds-310317

ADR index

The Bank of New York ADR index did pause near the trendline of the highs. The highs and lows make for a potential triangle in an X wave that maybe complete here. So till we get a clear break out on the upside we need to weigh the risk of a top in the global market index here. This could happen either because of US equities or EMs. In 2015 EMs were the cause of this index falling off a cliff. This time EMs are getting strength from the bearish dollar view and maybe it is time for the US markets to give in. This level is going to be important. It could mark a pause in the reflation rally.

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Gold Quarterly

The quarterly chart of Gold has finally given a buy signal on Momentum. This means that the downward momentum waned enough to push the indicator upwards above the red moving average. On the price chart the green 40 quarter average worked as support. Note that a year back this average was broken even as I thought it would act as a bottom for Gold. Now the retest of this level adds strength to the trend. Usually after a retest of this nature prices take off.

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Rohit Srivastava
www.indiacharts.com
For accurate market forecasting. Market forecasting is a study of past data to assess
future probable outcomes. It is our endeavor to discuss high probability outcomes for
traders and investors. However this is not a solicitation to buy or sell stocks futures or
options or any security. Trading in any financial market should be done with sound
knowledge and the help of a qualified investment adviser. Stocks based on the Elliott
wave model are based on the Fibonacci fractal of the market and momentum indicators,
targets are based on Fibonacci maths and are only indicative of what the mathematical
model throws up. This is not a recommendation to buy/sell.
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