Nifty Sugar US Bonds Dollar Copper

Published: Mon, 04/10/17

Follow:

10 APRIL 2017

The weekly Elliott Wave commentary with Targets and levels is published every Sunday to Subscribers, This is only an excerpt.

MEDIUM TERM

NIFTY ELLIOTT WAVE UPDATE

The out performance of Midcaps and Smallcaps has been breathtaking but the Lagging behind of the Nifty has been conspicuous. However when you use diffusion indicators like A/D ration each new high in the market since March has seen a lower top in the A/D ratio or the Momentum swing. fewer stocks are rising each day. No body in the mainstream wants to call a market top because it hurts their reputation. However I have seen an increasing sense of concern from money managers about valuations after a long time so pay attention to the weak technicals for a potential trend reversal... READ MORE

sensex-030417

US 30yr Bonds

the US 30 year has bottomed at 61.8%, the last time it did at 66%. In continue to anticipate a multi month bond rally in the US from here as the recent lows involved some of the most bearish bond market sentiment on record. Which is why even the recent Fed statements on reducing the size of their balance sheet had no impact on the bond market. It is already very oversold and due for a lot of short covering.

bonds-0704173

USDTHB

USDTHB - or the Thai Baht almost achieved C=A even as it broke the lower end of the channel. The larger degree wave counts are not so clear but this move maybe done and even an X wave rally can be expected. X wave means a counter trend move that will retrace the losses. Going back to the wave B high near 35.4 which is close to 61.8% should not be ruled out.

usdthb-070417

Copper

The weekly chart of Copper shows that the momentum has been in sell mode. Prices have not been able to take off on the 20wma, and a failure to cross 2.70 can mean that we will complete the cycle in momentum back to zero and prices may test the lower end of the range near 2.50$. A falling channel for price would project up to 2.47. After that we may start another rally

copper-070417

Sugar Prices

Global Sugar prices achieved the downside target near the lower end of the channel where C=A. The fall in wave C may also be 5 waves and done. So we should now start anticipating higher sugar prices in a new wave up. Mostly a larger degree 3rd. The Caveat is that Agro prices can and have been treacherous and so you should wait to see that wave C does not extend lower. Look for a confirmation like a move above the averages a trendline and momentum indicators.

sugar-040717

Sugar Ncdex

In the morning I reported that global sugar prices maybe ending wave C down as traded on the CSCE. However on the NCDEX, the chart below shows that wave B may be just complete and wave C down to 3400 or lower is still pending. I discussed this target last month as well. Domestic prices have been lagging behind the global prices and have a lot of catching up to do downwards. So it maybe early to call a bottom in sugar from a domestic stand point.

sugar-070417

Dollar Index

The dollar index opened at the 78.6% retracement mark of the last decline and near the upper bollinger band, and near the falling trendline from the Dec top. 101.50 is therefore going to be an important level to decide which side we are headed from here for the dollar index. The bulls or bears are going to have a run on the dollar from here. Just get the direction right. Staying below 101.50 I would think that a major decline starts.

dxy-100417

Don't WAIT for this update! GET Nifty Daily Weekly and the Monthly Long Short report and everything else directly in your mailbox

STAY AHEAD of the market turns. 3 Steps away. And WORTH many times more than what you pay.

Go here SUBSCRIBE NOW

PAYPAL RECURRING 9$ PER MONTH

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Rohit Srivastava
www.indiacharts.com
For accurate market forecasting. Market forecasting is a study of past data to assess
future probable outcomes. It is our endeavor to discuss high probability outcomes for
traders and investors. However this is not a solicitation to buy or sell stocks futures or
options or any security. Trading in any financial market should be done with sound
knowledge and the help of a qualified investment adviser. Stocks based on the Elliott
wave model are based on the Fibonacci fractal of the market and momentum indicators,
targets are based on Fibonacci maths and are only indicative of what the mathematical
model throws up. This is not a recommendation to buy/sell.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~