Pharma Index and Dr.Reddy

Published: Tue, 03/21/17

In Sept 2016 When I wrote the following Note on the Healthcare Index it was to mark a possible Medium to Longer term top in the index. A pullback to the broken channel line is usually an ideal point of sale. The index dropped more than 10% in the following months and has been pulling back a bit. But it is hard to say that worst is over. Here is what I put out.
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BSE Healthcare index - broke its long term trendline in early 2015 and the recovery since has only been a slow pullback to the broken line which is acting as a strong resistance. Staying below this line the trend should be down for Pharma stocks as this index indicates. A wave C decline of equal degree of the one seen late last year would be seen.

hc160916
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So in Jan 2017 I looked at the following chart of Dr.Reddy and it was apparent that the worst was not over for the stock. Now these are slow moving stocks and not exactly great to ride on a trade. And it has fallen against the market. Still for those holding long term the Price Cut was meaningful. The Pharma sectors weakness at this moment is a major divergence from the market. And it may stay that way till the Next bear phase of the market starts. Here is my 18/01/17 Note on Dr. Reddy
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Dr. Reddy broke to a new near term low today. Prices have taken a long time to accelerate into wave C down. On the chart we have just broken the yellow support line as an indication that wave C down might have started. From the high marked B there are many impulsive declines meaning that wave C down might even extend. So 2300 where C=A should only be seen as the minimum target range with room to extend lower before it is over. In the short term today we started wave III down breakint 2943 and heading to 2777 where III=I. at a minor degree. So by the time wave 3 completes 5 waves we can project the fractal to 2600. The yellow line at 3010 should act a a resistance on bounces if any.

reddy-180117