Russia Agro Commodities Crude AUD CNY

Published: Thu, 06/08/17

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The drop in Total Market Volumes since March is just one of the Amazing market divergences that we are seeing right now. The other could be the extreme low readings of Market Volatility based on the India VIX at all time highs in Nifty. Both are the exact opposite of what you would expect. A rally in Euphoria should have seen new highs in volumes breadth and volatility but the opposite is the case. This along with the most timid rallies in US 10 year Notes as discussed in today's Long Short Update are reasons you need to stay up to date with every market update. Here are some of our Updates from around the World

Wild West Options Market is the most mispriced it's ever been | Nancy Davis Clip

Dear Members,

08 JUNE 2017

The RBI meet ended in a non event as they did not respond to even weak data and weaker expectations of inflation to offer a rate cut. Obviously that would have been bad for bank profits as spreads may have tightened before the banks can lower costs. So focus goes back to events around the world from elections Qatar and the FED rate decision.

CRB Index

The CRB index has been consolidating in a narrow range for the last one year. The next move higher should start sooner than later, a 3rd wave [or C for the conservative]. But why expectations are conservative are that we are at the end of a 3 wave bear market in commodities, that retraced 78.6% of the bull run and achieved C=A. To an Elliottician it is the ideal condition to consider the exact opposite, the start of an up trend. Confidence may only rise as time passes on this trend. In any case a third wave would at least occur and there is no immediate bear case here.

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USDAUD

I have tried considering pending bullish options for many of the currency pairs but with the falling dollar many are giving up again. The AUD ended its move down against the dollar in 3 waves last year. So will it form wave 4 and 5? This chart of the USDAUD looks like a triangle. It is either a wave 4 triangle and we go down to 1.29 in wave E or we break the wave D low at 1.2897 and start a bear trend in the contract. The upper line is at 1.373 and that may not be crossed for now so the near term risk reward is poised for more downside.

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Russian RTSI index

The Russian RTSI index completed 3 waves in an X wave and started Z down. Z is the last phase of a bear market. So this should be the last dip for Russian equities though the depth of the decline is hard to call in Z. A retest of the 500 low cannot be ruled out as a worst case.

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Crude

Crude remains in wave b of C down. The lower channel support is at 44.40 as a final level for this structure. 43.76 is the starting point of wave a for a complete violation of the 5 wave rise in wave a.

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Soy Bean Ncdex

Soy Bean found support at near the 2625 level. This was 61.8% of the entire 2005-2012 rise. The recent decline looks like a expanding triangle and can mark a near term bottom for prices given the positive divergences in RSI. A bounce back rally from here would attempt to breakout of the triangle above 3012 and then go to the 38.2% retracement mark at 3267.

soy-080617

Cotton Ncdex

Cotton prices have crashed to the lower end of a 10 year channel, in fact below it. c=a on the chart is near 1525 so we are getting really close. And daily and weekly RSI readings in the 20s means oversold at many degrees. The final bottom may not be in place but could be close and one cannot be too bearish here but wait for a sign that a bottom is in place near these levels.

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Sugar CSCE

Sugar prices broke below the May lows where I was expecting a bottom. That trading range looks like a triangle so it was only wave iv of C and wave v of C down has formed now. Positive divergences on RSI continue as we near the 78.6% retracement mark at 13.25$. So a bottom should be close for global Sugar. A move back above 15$ would confirm it.

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Copper

Commodities have been mixed. Copper below appears stable. So do lead and Aluminium. Nickel still keeps falling and Zinc is seeing deep retracements. Copper is holding the 20dma and the daily momentum remains in buy mode so it is giving positive signs. 2.54 is the 20dma as the support and unless we close below that the next move higher should unfold.

copper-020617

USDCNY

I have flipped from expecting a smaller degree 4th wave or larger degree 4th wave on this contract. This week break of the rising channel from the 2015 low should mean that it is a larger degree wave 4. EWI thinks the larger 3 wave rise is A-B-C, but I keeping the fall a 4th wave till the 23.6% retracement mark near 6.75. Will wave 4 end in A-B-C as shown or continue to form a triangle over many months? We will see. Below 6.75 it would be better to consider more bearish options on the USDCNY.

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Rohit Srivastava
www.indiacharts.com
For accurate market forecasting. Market forecasting is a study of past data to assess
future probable outcomes. It is our endeavor to discuss high probability outcomes for
traders and investors. However this is not a solicitation to buy or sell stocks futures or
options or any security. Trading in any financial market should be done with sound
knowledge and the help of a qualified investment adviser. Stocks based on the Elliott
wave model are based on the Fibonacci fractal of the market and momentum indicators,
targets are based on Fibonacci maths and are only indicative of what the mathematical
model throws up. This is not a recommendation to buy/sell.
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