Midcaps Nasdaq Crude Dow Bonds Wheat Coffee

Published: Wed, 06/28/17

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Dear Members,

28 JUNE 2017

Rising US bonds have kept the Dow under pressure and Midcaps in India Peaked in the month of May creating a inter market divergence with the Nifty in June when the Nifty made a new high. The Euro has defied the Euro bears and will continue to do so for a long time. Global Agro commodity prices are also giving up their recent gains. US stocks show signs of rolling over. That is how I conclude the charts below.

US 30 year Treasury bonds

The 30 year bonds are still holding up and in wave v of C up. The bonds might make one more push higher at least and get closer to the upper end of the channel before we get a meaningful trend reversal from the rising trend in bonds.

bonds260617

Nasdaq 100

Nasdaq broke the 20/40 day averages and is now close to the neckline of a potential head and shoulders top at 5662. A break would set it up for a decline to 5400 based on the head measurement.

nasdaq-280617

Crude Mcx

Crude broke out of the falling channel and the trend should be up with 2930 and 3015 as the next two levels on the way up.

crude-280617

Euro

I started by thinking that wave iii was ending but the thought that wave 1 was complete was erroneous [based on high DSI Optimism]. Wave v of 1 is now forming and the parallel channel goes out to 1.151. This last push higher should complete a 5 wave rise for the Euro and mark the start of a larger up trend in the months ahead. Of course at the end of 5 waves we get the first serious pullback for the trend as well. But the trend is clear.

euro280617

BSE Midcap index

As the index continues to strive higher in wave 5 of its move the BSE Midcap index hourly chart is still struggling at the 78.6% retracement mark amid weak breadth. So it will not be surprising that this index declines against the large cap indices as more stocks decline here on. It will need to breakout of this tight range for a positive trend to emerge in the broad market.

midcap-210617

USDBRL

Time to consider the bull case for the USDBRL again. The real has taken support on its long term trendline and started to push higher. The wave count longer term is indicative of a 5th wave that can go to a new high. 3.16 is the lower end of the channel that is acting as the pivot for the trend. 4.11 is the mid channel level.

usdbrl220617

Wheat CBT

Touched the upper end of a falling channel after a corrective advance and thus is open to dropping again from 471 to the lower end of the channel near 300.

wheat-230617

Coffee CSCE

Coffee prices have not yet bottomed and had a big down day yesterday. So chances are they will slip to the neckline near 100. While this level held the last few times we need to watch this time. Agro prices in general are falling everywhere, in India and abroad and no stopping it yet.

coffee-230617

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Rohit Srivastava
www.indiacharts.com
For accurate market forecasting. Market forecasting is a study of past data to assess
future probable outcomes. It is our endeavor to discuss high probability outcomes for
traders and investors. However this is not a solicitation to buy or sell stocks futures or
options or any security. Trading in any financial market should be done with sound
knowledge and the help of a qualified investment adviser. Stocks based on the Elliott
wave model are based on the Fibonacci fractal of the market and momentum indicators,
targets are based on Fibonacci maths and are only indicative of what the mathematical
model throws up. This is not a recommendation to buy/sell.
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