Dollar Silver Bonds FTSE

Published: Sun, 07/16/17

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Dear Members,

16 JULY 2017

The nifty went past our first critical level of 9680 and the next one is near 9990. That is almost a magic number. Here is our global round up of the markets from this week as the dollar bear market does not appear to be in a mood of slowing down.

FTSE

FTSE closed down for the quarter ended June. The high was very close to 7550, where the entire rise from 2009 is 123.6% of the 2007-2009 bear market. So it is within the territory of a wave B structure. It also touched the parallel channel of the lows from point Y to Z. The rally in the FTSE is also a series of corrective patterns. I did think we were done at wave Y high. The rise from 20016 lows was marked as A-B-C and that has not changed. What went wrong was it did not end at C=A. C is now a 5 wave pattern at the end. This week the FTSE broke down to close below the blue [2-4] trendline breaking a key support and indicating a trend reversal. A move below the recent low of 7302.71 would further confirm the start of the next wave of selling in Britain.

ftse-120717

S&P 500

Yesterday I noted a ending on the Dow and prices did rise to the upper line of the pattern. But S&P looks more like this. A parallel channel for wave 5 and we may have only started wave v of 5. So till a clear reversal shows up the S&P can have room to move up some more.

snp130717

US 30 year Treasury bonds

The US 30 year bonds bounced back to the channel trendline. A pullback maybe complete as they can technically at such a level. The wave iv high at 153.78 maybe the best case scenario if we go any higher. Else wave III down should start and go below the March 2017 bottom, a new low for the year. Meaning a new high in US rates again very soon.

bonds-130717

Euro

The Euro has managed to push higher but adding just 4 waves. In other words remember the 5+4 = 9 waves for an impulse as a principle. Based on this the Euro has extended its 5th wave to the high of 1.1489 seen yesterday and we are still due for a larger degree correction in wave 2 back to the wave 4 range near 1.112

euro-130717

Dollar Index

The dollar is forming a corrective pattern. Wave b complete wave c up may have now started. Wave c should test the upper end of the small channel at 96.30 close to the 20dma. A move above that would create the case for a possible larger move to 96.70 or above that 97.70 at the upper end of the channel. Staying below 96.30 the next move down may start from there itself.

dxy140717

Silver

Silver spot prices completed a wave iv bounce back and should now start wave v of c down, as the last and final move for this fall. Sentiment in terms of DSI, of the COT report on positions are both at extremes for Silver already. This last push down would complete the EW structure as well and set it up for a trend reversal to the upside. A retest of the recent low near 14.86 is all I am anticipating for now. Because last weeks flash crash in silver has already achieved the C=A target near the blue line.

silver-140717

USDSGD

USDSGD - continues to decline and push daily momentum to the sell side. Lower tops and bottoms continue. So it remains in a larger wave 2 decline and 61.8% comes in at 1.3197. The neckline support of the lows is at 1.35

usdsgp-140717

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Rohit Srivastava
www.indiacharts.com
For accurate market forecasting. Market forecasting is a study of past data to assess
future probable outcomes. It is our endeavor to discuss high probability outcomes for
traders and investors. However this is not a solicitation to buy or sell stocks futures or
options or any security. Trading in any financial market should be done with sound
knowledge and the help of a qualified investment adviser. Stocks based on the Elliott
wave model are based on the Fibonacci fractal of the market and momentum indicators,
targets are based on Fibonacci maths and are only indicative of what the mathematical
model throws up. This is not a recommendation to buy/sell.
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