Dear Members,

Aluminium Mcx

Aluminium rallied in 5 waves and retraced 61.8% at 121.70. Dipped to a low of 120.90. So these supports should help propel it into wave iii up iii=i points to 127.50

Crude Mcx

Crude Mcx - is in wave c up. c=a goes up to 3200 however with wave c subdividing we can see it extend to higher rations. The x wave high near 3383, is 61.8% of the entire decline for the year. 50% is at 3257. Both are open levels that can be achieved in wave c

Nifty Video Update

Nifty fell yesterday breaking the hourly channel at 9836, however wave wise it looks like the rise is only 3 waves so if we do not break 9780, we should go back up to test the upper trendline of 1-3 in wave 5 up to 10000 nifty. 3<1, and 5 <3 is likely. This is the alternate if the 5th is still not over.

This 2 mins video explains it http://screencast-o-matic.com/watch/cbiq11lOlu

Nasdaq 100

The Nasdaq 100, a year back among the many alternates I considered was a triangle for 2015-2016. Going back to that it changes the outlook for the Nasdaq near term. Wave 5 up would have only started. The upper trendline of the highs goes to 6080-6100.

Dow

Dow - wave 5 is extending, we are now in wave v of 5 and that is also subdividing. 21340 is the lower trendline and till it does not break we can go to 21800.

DAX - leading the way for Europe

Unlike US stocks that are stretching out in wave 5 higher, the European indices have 5 wave declines. It shows up very clearly in the German DAX. It recently bounced back in 3 waves to almost 61.8%. Yesterday it fell below the b wave low confirming that the bounce was corrective and maybe wave 3 down to  12060

Euro

The Euro bull run continued even as bearish sentiment is in single digits. This excessive near term bullish traders reading continues to mean that a 5 wave rise is closer to completion. For the rally to continue unabated a pause or consolidation is needed. That said the big picture remains bullish as everyone has the narrative wrong.

US 10 year T Notes

The 10 year note has retraced almost 50% and wave c=a is nearly done. wave ii should be near completion and wave iii down is to unfold next soon.

Silver Mcx

Prices are edging higher with the 40dema at 38238 as the next resistance. I still think we can make one last dip in wave z that can test the lower channel line near 35000 a last time before a larger up trend can start. A move above 38238 however might mean that we have already bottomed out.

Relative Rupee

In case you did not notice the INR pair, the USDINR, has note exactly been falling like the rest of the worlds currency pairs. The relative rupee is the RS of the USDINR with the DXY or dollar index. This is rising since April. Meaning that on a relative basis holding steady the INR is actually weaker than the dollar. We in effect have a currency devaluation quietly. 

Gold Mcx Daily

If prices are able to sustain above the  28260-28388 levels I will consider a bottom is in place right now it is open to discussion. Wave wise the fall is 5 waves down so marked as wave a. Then the bounce should be wave b and wave c down is still pending. If the rise becomes an impulse the view changes.