Dear Members,
05 SEPTEMBER 2017
The weekly Elliott Wave commentary with Targets and levels is published every Sunday to Subscribers, This is only an excerpt.
MEDIUM TERM
NIFTY ELLIOTT WAVE UPDATE
For three weeks the Nifty has been rising in a complex pattern holding the blue support trendline on this chart that has risen to 9825. Nifty is at an important Fibonacci Juncture near 10000 and the bull bear debate is quite active with every push higher and lower. In hindsight I hope we do not end up blaming the market moves on War as the Geopolitical angle with Korea is particularly heated up. But markets around the world have bee losing momentum for weeks despite making new
highs. Market internals are slowly deteriorating and make for an interesting set up for the weeks ahead. The chart shows Nifty touching the upper end of a rising channel on a arithmetic scale.... READ MORE
LONG TERM
THE LONG & SHORT REPORT :- The LSR is our detailed monthly forecast of where the markets are headed, including sentiment indicators, inter market analysis, wave counts and a global perspective . Report now available TO Indiacharts Subscribers.
Long term Perspective and Basis: Updated 29 MAY 2017
Sensex completed a long term 5th wave in 2015. Midcap index since then has
transformed into an ending diagonal pattern [3-3-3-3-3], structure on weekly charts. Nifty could have developed the same but did not. The next best alternate is to mark the two as expanded flat patterns. The rise from the 2016 low is a-b-c as part of wave b of a expanded flat. The expanded flat is the only structure that allows for a new high in wave b. But with a limit of 138.2% of wave a. In very large time frames 161.8% is seen but is more rare. So 123.6% and 138.2% are two possible
projections in this pattern. 123.6% is now at 31800. But the thing about 5th waves also is that they do not follow script. They can truncate extend or fail and therefore difficult. The end point is best trailed with a number of your choice. The out performance of Midcaps over NIfty for a prolonged period creates a large market divergence that has gone on longer than ever before. Such divergences are often a advance warning of a major trend reversal at hand. Many may want to argue that 1994-2001
is wave 2 and not wave 4, however based on my assessment of Economic cycles as discussed in the Economic cycles section of the website this is a better assessment. You will need back data going back to the 1940s to get the full picture on this. The existence of a triangle from 2008-2013 allows us to mark that as wave IV of the structure. Till proven otherwise wave V of 5 has ended completing a supercycle degree Bull market that started with the inception of the RBI in 1934. This is discussed in
more detail in the Economic winter reports. If the 5th wave does manage to extend it would be on the back of inflationary forces that have now become apparent but inflation adjusted returns of the Nifty since 2008 remain negative. Nifty adjusted for Inflation and Gold are discussed under the Economic updates section of the website.
