Dear Members,

Crude

Crude fell below the level discussed day before. The implications are that the entire rise from the June bottom is corrective. The rising trendline on the chart at 47.10 is the last support below which we should be in wave E down.

Failure to go above the 61.8% mark means that we may now be forming wave E of a running triangle. Wave E can either test the neckline at 42.80 and bottom there or maybe even break below it. If 42 is broken then maybe even a alternate pattern will develop with a dip to the 61.8% retracement mark near 37.3. Ideally we should not break 42.

S&P 500

The first  waves of a decline appear to be complete on the S&P, ideally the next move should be wave iii down towards the 2407 swing low, near the wave iv mark. 2470 is the 20dma resistance.

US 30 year Treasury bonds

US Treasury bonds sold off from the 61.8% mark and the upper end of a flag. Ideally wave II is complete and wave III down unfolds which should see bond yields spike up in the coming weeks. 

Gold

Gold - sold off in two days again from the upper end of the rising channel and the 1300 mark for a third time. The daily momentum rolled over to the sell side. so unless we see a fresh pick up in gold maybe it will repeat the same pattern. 1261 is the trendline support a break of which will confirm that we are heading back to 1206 nekline.

USDJPY

USDJPY - broke the trendline of the previous lows and may have started the next major leg lower. Wave iii down would point to 106.47 and resistance near 110.90

Lead Mcx

Lead prices took support at the lower Bollinger band and started up. 140.50 and 143 are support at the recent swing low and 40dema. III=I=161 as the upside in wave III. 146 is the immediate hurdle to close above, i.e. the 20dma.

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