Nifty Video BSE Healthcare Dollar SGD Crude

Published: Wed, 10/04/17

     

Dear Members,

04 Oct 2017

With 2 months of going no where there are some pockets of gains that I am able to identify and yes it remains the one and only metals sector. At least metal prices like Lead are at a new high. Nifty has been flat for 2 months as most domestic indices took support on the 20 week average. Weekly momentum continues to decline though world markets on a similar set up have taken off to new records this week. This at the start of the results season should keep us on the hook. The RBI policy just ended as a non event. The updates for this week includes a Nifty video posted to subscribers last week. Enjoy!

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Dollar Index

The first five wave rise in the dollar to 94.10 about to complete.

dxy 031017


USDTWD

The Taiwan Dollar - early days of forming a base and recovering from the lows. An X wave or a new rally? Both odds are open. Upper end of the falling channel is at 31.27 as the resistance to any X wave move up. A 5 wave rise and 3 wave correction long term are done though so odds should favour another impulse wave up.

usdtwd 031017


USDSGD

USDSGD closed positive for the last two months - wave 3 of larger degree appears due to start on the monthly chart. If not at least a near term rally in the pair. Next resistance is at 1.38 and 61.8% retracement is at 1.41.

usdsgd 031017


Russel 2000

The Russel 2000 of small stocks has had a one sided move up, pushing the RSI to 85 on the daily charts, the highest reading since 1997.

russel 031017


BSE Healthcare

 The question is asked often... Have Pharma stocks bottomed out? Here is a quick take using the BSE Healthcare index. The fall fits a nice falling channel and we did bottom at the lower end of the channel, after what has so far been a complex 3 wave decline. Marked as W-X-Y, what is left open is whether the next move up is the start of a new bull phase for Pharma stocks or just an X wave. Ideally long term corrections will go on till point Z and therefore I cannot conclude that the worst is over even after 2 years in the channel. The best approach is to keep expectations for an X wave to the upper end of the channel and remain open to wave Z down in one more decline when it happens. After that it might be worth considering a longer term bottom for the Sector.

health1


Crude

I discussed the downside risk to crude Medium term yesterday however near term if the 50.20 support [20dma] holds, and maintains the rising channel shown on this chart, maybe wave v of C up is still on the cards. The wave i high of 49.42 has not overlapped and till that happens wave v can be kept open. Wave v of C then can still make an attempt at 53$.

crude 041017


US 10 year T Notes

Yields breaking out the yield chart looks like minor wave iii up starting. The slow grind up in US yields will draw global yields higher.

PicsArt 09-28-04.48.40


Nifty Video Update

Nifty near the end of a 5 wave decline today and we discuss what makes for a valid head and shoulders marking with the use of EW analysis. Video 4 mins

http://screencast-o-matic.com/watch/cbQuhUIvBi


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~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Rohit Srivastava
www.indiacharts.com
For accurate market forecasting. Market forecasting is a study of past data to assess
future probable outcomes. It is our endeavor to discuss high probability outcomes for
traders and investors. However this is not a solicitation to buy or sell stocks futures or
options or any security. Trading in any financial market should be done with sound
knowledge and the help of a qualified investment adviser. Stocks based on the Elliott
wave model are based on the Fibonacci fractal of the market and momentum indicators,
targets are based on Fibonacci maths and are only indicative of what the mathematical
model throws up. This is not a recommendation to buy/sell.
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