Dear Members,

Coffee CSCE

International Coffee prices are back on track with wave 3 up starting and should now attempt to breakout of the triangle upside at 158.

US 10 year T Notes

After a long wait the US 10 year and 30 year momentum indicators rolled over yesterday and tonight they broke the rising channel from the July low so the move up should be complete. The bond market started its next wave down. Unless it is part of a more complex rise, we should anticipate that wave 3/C down long term has finally started. Prices sold off from the 20 month averages. Next will be the broader rising channel from the March low.

Silver Inter market divergence

The inter market divergence between Silver and Gold marks many highs and Lows and the recent rally once again leaves behind a larger degree divergence as the new high in Gold above the April high was not confirmed by a similar move in Silver. This divergence leaves open on the table the possibility that the two precious metals are still forming the long term base triangle and the take off point still lies ahead after wave E in one final dip to complete the pattern.

Chamanlal Sethia

Value wave update for Chamanlal Sethia - the rice processor

This chart should remind you of the examples I was showing for the Large base triangle in reference to Gold. So after completing wave E, truncated because it did not touch the lower line, the subsequent rise was one sided. The monthly chart shows a 5 wave rise complete so a retracement or pullback consolidation may follow. The wave 4 low is near 50 as the major swing low support.

Nasdaq Composite

Negative divergences continue on the weekly momentum for the Nasdaq that keeps bouncing back from the 20wma support [red average], The bands are narrow and either prices can expand the bands again by breakout out upwards or else we should at least pull back to the lower Bollinger band near 6041 [Upper end 6472]

Brazil

Brazil is the big beneficiary of the falling dollar. The equity market there was in a bearish trend from 2010-2016 when the dollar was rising. Now it is just the opposite. Wave 2 circle did not retrace much as I was anticipating and now wave 3 circle points to 11500 odd. This is a bull market. The Indian market does not relate with this at all.

Euro

During the last week the Euro fell in 3 waves and that leaves open one last alternate that wave 5 is still forming as a triangle. Wave e of 5 can push up to 1.21 a last time.

Lead Mcx

Complexity can be baffling at times. So after many weeks of complex moved Lead prices are moving up again. This requires serious consideration. So we have retraced 61.8% in what could be wave 2 as a complex pattern till we hold the recent 143 support. From here 3=1 can project up to 174 in wave 3 up. 

Silver

Silver immediate support at 17.50$, a close below which opens up 17.25 and 16.80 below that.