Dear Members,

Copper

Copper - is in wave iii of 5 and one dip in wave iv and final push higher in wave v are pending before we can say that the move is complete. With most targets achieved I ma not putting anynumbers for wave v. 3.18 and 3.13 are supports for wave iv. 3.13 is 38.2% retracement.

Axis Bank

Axis Bank attempting to break two important medium term support levels. First the neckline of a head and shoulders pattern at 483, a close below which has implications of a decline continuation to 425 simply on head projection method. The second is the breaking of the trendline from the 2016-2017 bottoms at 478, the implications of which are to first go back to the 2017 low of 424. That the drop off forecast for months occurred with a gap down on results is just tough luck. The longer term implications of the wave count are that we are in wave Y. And wave C of Y, based on C=A points to 364 near the 216 bottom.

2 weeks back when I Wrote about Axis I said a-b-c was done in wave 2 and then the high was surpassed, we were stopped our our short. and what happend was the new high was another a-b-c making the rise complex but still wave 2 with a deeper retracement. No change in view. But it was hard to trade esp with the gap down today. Yes the trade could have been taken day before when the stock closed down after wave c at the upper channel line with low risk. But we did not do that. But the trend discussed above is still in force especially with the head and shoulders neckline aty 483. And banking remains the weakest sector still.

BHEL - IC Charts

IC Charts - BHEL - Long Term wave count

The stocks has been in a bear trend for years and currently in wave Z down as the final phase. The neckline of the lows seen in the last 3 years is at 80 so a break below 80 would confirm that wave C of Z down is in force. C of Z would mean a low below the wave A low of 60 and C=A is below 40. Sometimes wave Z develops as a ending diagonal so it might not be that severe but we cannot call it.

USDZAR

USDZAR - or the South African Rand, wave ii pullback appears complete and wave iii up should be next. iii=i is at 14.40. 

S&P

The Dow lead the way this time breaking from out from one channel into a steeper channel and touche the upper end of the channel. The S&P daily chart was showing wave v pending and that has now started and the channel shows the upside up to 2592. Wave v can truncate if the rest of the market gives up and 2556 is the lower end of the channel below which we consider a trend reversal.

Gold Mcx Daily

Gold was down and managed to push the daily momentum into sell mode. Gold Mcx closed very near the 40dema at 29571, below which gold should head to the lower Bollinger band at 29294. On weekly charts the 20/40 day averages are near 29090 as the next important support level. The weekly momentum also crossed over to the sell side as gold closed down for the week.

US 10 year T Notes

The only reason I can think that drove fear into Indian markets would be the rising dollar accompanied by rising bond yields. The US 10 year treasury notes on Friday saw a bid dip closer to the wave 1 low. If broken it would confirm start of wave 3 up for bond yields. The 10 year notes should yields near 2.64% in wave 3. 

Silver Mcx

Silver is in wave c down and c=a can point to 37608. The recent high for wave b is at 40632. Wave c may also extend lower to the 2 year trendline support that is closer to 36026. Wave c will be a 5 wave decline so till 5 waves down do not complete the move is not complete.