Dear Members,
18 Dec 2017
I have finally updated my Long Term wave counts and analysis this week so do not miss the second
half below. The last update was in May. The big change is in interpreting the fractals from 2009 to date which remain a series of 3 waves. Earlier they were part of a triangle 2008-2013, now the triangle is a wedge 2009-2017. When a series of waves and fractals show up we have to choose what they may fit into based on the evidence and change it as new evidence develops. In my case it does not change my long term outlook.
Enjoy and Share
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18 DECEMBER 2017
The weekly Elliott Wave commentary with Targets and levels is published every Sunday to Subscribers, This is only an excerpt of our observations from recent publications.
MEDIUM TERM
NIFTY ELLIOTT WAVE UPDATE
Nifty managed to take support on the 20 week average again. So unless broken we can again test the upper end of the trading range. The rising channel on the
arithmetic scale has resistance at 10670.. The blue line has support at 10121 READ MORE
LONG TERM
THE LONG & SHORT REPORT :- The LSR is our detailed monthly forecast of where the markets are headed, including sentiment indicators, inter market analysis, wave counts and a global perspective . Report now available TO Indiacharts Subscribers.
Long term Perspective and Basis: Updated
18 Dec 2017
Nifty continued its long term 5th wave formation into 2017. The pattern across indices has slowly morphed itself into a ending pattern especially on broad based indices like the Niffty 500 with perfect touch points. On the Nifty chart below however wave E of 5 is still away from the upper line and an early termination will lead to what we call truncation. As discussed in the Economic winter reports this points to a final winter
bear market that lies ahead. The winter bear market has been hard to spot as the nominal index continues higher. It can give us the slip in nominal terms but not relative to Inflation, USD, or Gold. . If the 5th wave does manage to extend it would be on the back of inflationary forces that have now become apparent, however inflation adjusted returns of the Nifty since 2008 remain negative. Nifty adjusted for Inflation and Gold and USD are discussed under the Economic updates section of the website. In nominal terms the ending pattern may turn into a running triangle and result in a rally if the slowly rising inflation turns into a trend of rapidly rising prices. This is not what I expect. I
expect to see stagflation some time in the second half of next year as commodity prices continue to advance in the midst of the dollar bear market that has already started. I have discussed these trends extensively in my podcasts on Soundcloud so do not miss them. The entire rise from 2009-2017 so far appears like a 3-3-3-3-3, structure, and thus marked as A-B-C-D-E. If you want to mark an impulse consider 1-2-3-4-5 done where 5<3<1. The conclusion is the same. The 2009-2017 advance in
Nifty is the slowest in Indian stock market history and that should tell you something about its nature. The record highs do not change the big picture. And I do not have to agree with EWI on this, I have chosen to do so before and correctly so especially for the Indian stock market. Right now I hold my contrarian stance long term even if we do make one more new record into the year end after the Gujarat elections
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