Dear Members,

05 FEBRIARY 2018

The weekly Elliott Wave commentary with Targets and levels is published every Sunday to Subscribers, This is only an excerpt of our observations from recent publications.

MEDIUM TERM

NIFTY ELLIOTT WAVE UPDATE 

In my last update I highlighted the story of divergences at each of the major tops of 2010/2015 and now forming in 2018. The Nifty 500 index of the broad market took the lead this time and crossed over to the sell side ahead of the Nifty.  READ MORE 

 LONG TERM  

THE LONG & SHORT REPORT :- The LSR is our detailed monthly forecast of where the markets are headed, including sentiment indicators, inter market analysis, wave counts and a global perspective . Report now available TO Indiacharts Subscribers.

Long term Perspective and Basis: Updated 18 Dec 2017

Nifty continued its long term 5th wave formation into 2017. The pattern across indices has slowly morphed itself into a ending pattern especially on broad based indices like the Niffty 500 with perfect touch points. On the Nifty chart below however wave E of 5 is still away from the upper line and an early termination will lead to what we call truncation. As discussed in the Economic winter reports this points to a final winter bear market that lies ahead. The winter bear market has been hard to spot as the nominal index continues higher. It can give us the slip in nominal terms but not relative to Inflation, USD, or Gold. . If the 5th wave does manage to extend it would be on the back of inflationary forces that have now become apparent, however inflation adjusted returns of the Nifty since 2008 remain negative. Nifty adjusted for Inflation and Gold and USD are discussed under the Economic updates section of the website. In nominal terms the ending pattern may turn into a running triangle and result in a rally if the slowly rising inflation turns into a trend of rapidly rising prices. This is not what I expect. I expect to see stagflation some time in the second half of next year as commodity prices continue to advance in the midst of the dollar bear market that has already started. I have discussed these trends extensively in my podcasts on Soundcloud so do not miss them. The entire rise from 2009-2017 so far appears like a 3-3-3-3-3, structure, and thus marked as A-B-C-D-E. If you want to mark an impulse consider 1-2-3-4-5 done where 5<3<1. The conclusion is the same. The 2009-2017 advance in Nifty is the slowest in Indian stock market history and that should tell you something about its nature. The record highs do not change the big picture. And I do not have to agree with EWI on this, I have chosen to do so before and correctly so especially for the Indian stock market. Right now I hold my contrarian stance long term even if we do make one more new record into the year end after the Gujarat elections