USDINR NASDAQ CRUDE

Published: Sat, 03/10/18

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Dear Members,

10 MAR 2018

If you have not noticed it already the Nifty is falling impulsively in 5 waves at a time. This is a marked trend change. The world markets and Nifty however parted from each other and as seen below the Nasdaq was indicating mid week that a new high maybe seen in the Tech index. That has happened. The USDINR has started going up but slowly and so I am considering an alternate path for it. Crude Oil was at a critical support of 59.90 but did not break it on Friday, so the bullish wave counts are still active. This while most commodities were under severe pressure this week. Here are the critical updates for this week from Indiahcarts

Nasdaq 100

It is possible given the steep retracement in the Nasdaq that unlike the Dow this index does manage one more new record high. If that happens then 7200-7232 is the upper end of the 2016-2018 channel.

nasdaq 090318

USDINR

I have not been saying much about the USDINR, backing off a bit and there was a reason. The recent rise was not powerful, volumes and Open interest are shallow. The rise was not as impulsive as I would like even after calling a bottom near 63. This month if it stays positive we will end up protecting the 20 quarterly average and push the monthly momentum to a buy. The reason for the fragile rise in the currency maybe the bear market in the dollar index. For this reason it is possible that we do not breakout of the 69 resistance level right away. The current move up may terminate near 69. That maybe wave D of the triangle in wave 4 long term. One last push lower in wave E will then follow. The breakout move to 90 might only occur later. Note the change I have made on this chart v/s my previous ones. Waves 1 and 2 of 3 are considered at the lows, and then the 4th wave of 3 is a triangle. These two changes allow marking the entire 2013-2091 period as a long term triangle in formation.

usdinr 090318

Crude

Time to consider new moves in the Crude. I have maintained that we are in wave 4 and 5 up may follow but we are now very close to breaking the rising channel from the June bottom. A move below 59.90 breaks the rising channel, with implications that this move may have ended in 3 waves. The wave count that supports this idea is below. If true then the move up in Oil is over. Note recently the Long positions in CFTC futures were hitting records but so were bye at 56 before it move to 62, so I have known that. Now once we get a reversal prices wont go back up for a while given that extreme till all longs are unwound. completing (Y) can mean either an X wave develops or a new downtrend. An X wave can mean 56-53 down. So keep that as the initial levels for now. As more evidence shows up.

crude 090318

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Rohit Srivastava
www.indiacharts.com
For accurate market forecasting. Market forecasting is a study of past data to assess
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options or any security. Trading in any financial market should be done with sound
knowledge and the help of a qualified investment adviser. Stocks based on the Elliott
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targets are based on Fibonacci maths and are only indicative of what the mathematical
model throws up. This is not a recommendation to buy/sell.
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