NIFTY ICICI Bank Soy Beans Crude and US 10 year bonds

Published: Thu, 04/05/18

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Dear Members,

05 APR 2018

Start this weeks update with a video that I put out a while back showing why wave B up was going to occur. Now many debate on whether this fall is wave A or a more complex pattern. Some tried to write that we have started wave C down. While that is an alternate, then too the fall is over in wave W. In either case we have broken past a few trendlines now for the short term. More important than the debate was knowing what the market was doing and it was losing momentum on the way down after the initial knee jerk reaction in Feb. The US charts below also show the potential for a pull back near term. It is all very interesting as there is no change in my long term outlook or my Economic winter scenarios, they are all slowly falling into place. We are heading into an earnings season that will be used to prove that growth is back. But we will not know if it is permanent till a few more quarters pass us by. Till then after today's RBI meet all eyes will remain on the bond market. The second half of the year will hurt because government borrowings have been pushed into the second half of the year. Stay tuned, markets will set up of that ahead of the events.

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Crude

Oil's next move should be wave iii up where iii=i points to 70.70$, and it is part of a 5th wave medium term.

crude 020418

Soy Bean Quintal [ncdex]

Soy Bean prices have consolidated in a triangle that is mostly wave 4. Holding the support near 3650 we may see wave 5 up develop where wave 5=1 = 4600.

soybean 020418

S&P 500

DSI for S&P and Nasdaq dropped to. 9% and 8% respectively. Extremely low oversold readings. The chart also shows a series of impulsive declines [5 waves down]. So the trend is down. But completion of an Impulse calls for a bounce along with the extreme sentiment. The question is only how much. A weak bounce would test the wave 4 high seen earlier and a strong one could go to the red trendline falling from the two lower tops formed so far. Once complete it would relieve the market from the current state and create room for the next move.

snp 030418

US 10 Year Treasury notes

US bond yields started to edge higher along with stocks as expected. Now bond yields may retest the highs soon. Wave 4 complete in an a-b-c correction.

bonds 040418

ICICI Bank - IC Charts

The trend down for ICICI bank deteriorated at various degrees. Wave E truncated giving up near the 10 year trend line of the highs. The 10 year pattern looks like an ending diagonal. Wave E of the ending was an expanding triangle [blue lines] and we have now broken below it. The break of 275 should mean that 275 is a strong resistance. The expanding triangle breaks gives a pattern projection down to 205. Long term we should head to the lower yellow line at 240 and if that breaks then to the wave D low of 164 eventually. The short term wave counts for ICICI bank have become difficult as prices keep extending lower without a bounce.

icici040418

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Rohit Srivastava
www.indiacharts.com
For accurate market forecasting. Market forecasting is a study of past data to assess
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