10 MAY 2018
Suddenly this month everything appears to have slowed down,
volatility is back where it was at the start of Jan. But this is the Month of May that often marks turning points for the market. Sell in May and Go Away? That one liner is often remembered and Nifty has had a history of big moves in May on both sides so do not take it lightly. At the same time USDINR has been inching up everyday with no market impact a rare event to watch. The two are mostly inversely correlated but for once they are going in the same direction. We are in one of those moments
where it appears that nothing matters. A period of calm and often complacency.
The real question is will the trends in the currency and bond markets continue and will they eventually matter? That and other questions are what this weeks posts try to answer. Asian markets were among the weakest performers and within that Japan and India are actually doing better on the indices even as they remain below ke
retracement levels. However it should not go unnoticed that the Breadth has been very poor on the Indian stock market. Negative for more than a week. This is why Midcap indices were down almost 2% today. Inter market divergences galore. You need to keep an eye on all the moving parts and that is what I try to do when I publish ''IC Mornings'' every day.
Lets get down to it, here are the posts from
the last few days on these trends.
US 10 Year Treasury notesThe US 10 year completed a 3 wave rise in a flag/channel and the next wave lower should have stated this morning. Bond prices should see new lows in wave 5 in the coming
days. 
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India 10 year Government SecuritiesBond Yields in India have become sticky in case you did not notice. The Govt postponed its borrowing program to the second half and helped create wave 2 of 5 down last month and now we are in wave 3 up that could see Indian 10 year yields rise to 8.2% in the coming month. Wave 5 is extending and could eventually draw us closer to the 9% mark in the coming year. The
point is we are developing a strong up trend in bond yields that is far from over. The impact of OMOs announced on Friday was short-lived and absorbed in a day. 
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Capital Goods IndexAn Ending Diagonal occurs in the last phase of a trend and not the start and this is a long term pattern so the implications are long term and multi year in nature. If proven true the
implications are to go back to the wave 4 low at 5350 from 19243 close today. 
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NikkeiJapanese stocks have been hovering below the 61.8% retracement mark for days now. The momentum is rolling over. Once prices confirm wave C down should start and head to below the 20347 low of wave A. 
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BUT WHAT ABOUT NIFTY !!
07 MAY 2018
The weekly Elliott Wave commentary with Targets and levels is published every Sunday to Subscribers, This is only an excerpt of our observations from recent publications.
MEDIUM TERM
NIFTY ELLIOTT WAVE UPDATE
The key
support for the market will be near 10000 at the rising trendline from the 2016 bottom, but the real question is, are we going to test it? For Elliott Wave analysts the debate is on whether the Feb-Mar decline was impulsive and whether the 5 week rally to 10785 is corrective. The bulls will call the next move up in Nifty a 5th wave to a new high, but I do not think that is a foregone conclusion. READ MORE
USDINR
To
best understand this I recorded a SoundCloud Podcast so here it is Enjoy...
https://soundcloud.com/indiacharts/usdinr-and-dollar-index
Get my complete Outlook on the Medium term and Long Term Market Position with Indiacharts Insiders everyday and Don't miss out on this months Long Short report, it might be the most important update on the coming
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