Nifty Video Update

The most important fact is that Nifty fell in 5 waves and that means that the trend is down. The question only is how much bounce. Some people are considering expanded flat for the correction, my reason to discard it is that wave b of a expanded flat typically ends at 138.2% of wave a, and in this case is more than even 161.8% so it is out of bounds. The best case scenario therefore is that this is wave 2 of C up and wave 3 of C down is next. This video discusses the impulse and its implications. 4 mins

http://screencast-o-matic.com/watch/cFhT1zbHgQ

Kotak Bank

Results discounted without the big banks giving up we are not seeing big moves in the key indices. Kotak bank is showing loss of momentum and daily momentum is in sell mode. Recent highs at 1301 holding we can expect a move back to the 40dema at 1195. If the 40dema breaks [green average], then it would open up for a move back to the wave 4 low near 1030. The rally ended just below a long term rising channel from 2013.

Crude

Crude Oil is dangerously poised after weeks of trying to extend wave v of 5. Time wise now wave i and iii are both 3 weeks long. So we are running out on time for it to hit 75. At 72.90 yesterday maybe we are forming a ending diagonal in crude oil prices on daily charts in wave v of 5. It is therefore a dangerous trade being long near term till the high is surpassed. On the other hand a pullback to the lower end of the channel near 66.40 or the wave 4 low at 60 maybe more probable. A break of 71 would be the first sign of a weakening trend. This is a weekly charat. Fractal wise 5=1 was at 72, so all has been achieved on that front.

US 10 Year Treasury notes

After days of anticipating one last push down in bond markets in wave v of 5 the move above the 20dma could mean that wave 5 is done for the fall that started in Sep'17. Here waves 1 and 5 of C are equal in time, but not in price. Similarly A=C was not achieved. For these reasons the move down appears truncated or ending early. Also as a last case maybe last nights rise in bond prices was a temporary move. However if it surpasses the 40dema at 119.70 then it maybe best to consider this done. What it means is that we start wave 2 of C up and retrace some of the losses for several weeks. Maybe back to the wave 4 high at 121.37. Keep the odds open with the resistance at 119.70 on watch, as bond yield charts are still open to one more move up in wave v of 5 to complete this move, till we fall below 2.91% on the 10 year yield. The record short positions in CFTC data across durations maybe the reason for short covering in the near term.

Aluminium Mcx

Key support for Aluminium is at 151.40 at the 40dema and 151.70 at 61.8%. Both important. Since the fall from the high was 3 waves i am marking it as 1 and 2 rather than wave 5 ended. Till the support holds we should be looking for signs of a new move up in Aluminium in the coming days.

Sugar CSCE

Global sugar prices might have finally bottomed as it took support on the blue long term trendline of a large triangle. On daily charts we have seen prices go above daily averages with a higher top bottom formation near term. If a long term low is in place we should start looking at this sector again later. Coffee and Sugar maybe the last few global agro commodities still to join the move up already seen in corn cocoa wheat and soy and lumber.

DAX

European indices reacted sharply in the last two days reversing the upward momentum,. DAX topped at 78.6% retracement, in wave B, and wave C down started with breaking the rising trendline for wave B and closed below the 20dma.