Nifty and Stocks#

Video Covering not just Nifty and bank nifty but some of the weak stocks that are falling even as the nifty appears to hold its own. 7.50 mins

http://screencast-o-matic.com/watch/cF1r1NF2MD

Shanghai Composite

The Chinese Shanghai composite also gapped down below the lows in wave C=A goes to 2735. I used the word Lullaby because the last few years were not exactly exciting on this index and now it is breaking down again. So while US and China exchange words and trade tariffs, the Chinese market appears more vulnerable so far. The US is ignoring the circular effects of hurting world markets that combined make up for a lot of world GDP. Nothing makes sense right now but this is it.

Crude

Crude Oil completed a 5 wave decline and is bouncing back. Wave B can retest the minor swing high near 67.16 or 50% retracement at 68.28 or 61.8% at 69.37. Once wave B is complete wave C down will go well below 63.40.

USDAUD

In my last post I anticipated a top in the USDAUD in May and it did decline, but the decline is not impulsive and we are rallying again strongly. So a big change in wave counts to more bullish alternates are needed here. A breakout above the channel at 1.348 may occur and it would be wave 3 of some degree. 1.374 is the 61.8% mark followed by the previous X wave high at 1.396. But in the big picture of things can we be looking at wave 5 up. The monthly chart below suggests that you can consider the last 2 years a triangle pattern in wave 4. Then 5=1 goes to 1.478.

USDCAD

In the CAD as in the AUD am making an important change. The fall completed 3 waves A-B-C, then I was marking an X wave but the high was surpassed and we are now above the falling trendline from the 2016 top. The alternate scenario is that the correction is over and a new rally in the USDCAD has resumed. There are two scenarios here. First that the rise would only retests the high near 1.4690, the rise could be impulsive or corrective as part of a long term consolidation. Alternatively we have started a new rally that will keep going to new highs above the 2016 top. Currently we should be heading toward 1.372-1.38 as the next resistance level. This monthly chart shows my long term wave count, and we mapped it from 2013 up in my daily updates on it back then so long term readers can relate with the progression.

Euro

As the Euro starts another impulsive decline it is in wave 5 of C down as shown. Now projecting for a deeper retracement up to 61.8% of wave 1 in wave 2 we can go to 1.12. Wave 5 is subdividing into 5 waves and we are in minor wave iii down.

US 10 Year Treasury notes

Yesterday I mentioned that US 10 year can do a-b-c up before going down. Last week I mentioned that the decline is impulsive. Both are true and so some near term alternates are open. Overnight we paused at 61.8% and marking an expanded flat I can argue that bonds start falling right away. This is s fluid situation on US bonds so we need to be open to what happens here.

Copper

Copper prices did not rally as far as they should in wave 5 and that raises doubts on its recent advance. Taking a step back if it is now moving down with the rest of the commodities complex then what is going on. All the moves from 2008 onward are 3 waves up and down. The most recent rise over the last 2 years can also be considered as 3 waves. So in that sense Copper series of corrective moves might be part of a large triangle and the next move down maybe wave E of a triangle. Levels? The recent low of 2.97 is the first support below which we can go to 61.8% of the rise in wave D near 2.47, and then below that the lower end of the triangle is at 2.30.