08 OCTOBER 2018
The weekly Elliott Wave commentary with Targets and levels is published every Sunday to
Subscribers, This is only an excerpt of our observations from recent publications.
MEDIUM TERM
NIFTY ELLIOTT WAVE UPDATE
5 weeks of a falling market and 3 trendline breaks without a pause should have been enough to mark this as a trend reversal This is new and has not happened before in the last few years. Still there are online posts about the trend up still
in force and new highs in Nifty before lower lows. What has gone missing is that trendline breaks are often followed by pullback rallies. The reason this happens is that many people panic sell the trendline break causing the short term oversold condition. The greatest risk today is that world markets that had paused their falling trend at the start of Sept after the trade tariff news are now rolling over to the downside again. READ MORE
LONG
TERM
THE LONG & SHORT REPORT :- The LSR is our detailed monthly forecast of where the markets are headed, including sentiment indicators, inter market analysis, wave counts and a global perspective . Report now available To Indiacharts Subscribers.
Long term Perspective and Basis: Updated 08 Oct 2018
Nifty closed down last month ending wave E of a ending diagonal in the Nifty or Nifty 500. The Sensex came closer to touching the upper trendline of the ending pattern. The ending pattern marked A-B-C-D-E and having internal waves 3-3-3-3-3, so far marks the end of a long term trend. The ending diagonal occurs in wave 5 of an impulse, and this is the 5th wave of a supercycle degree bull market which is why the pattern itself is 9 years long, the first in post independent
India. While Elliott wave analysts argue and still attempt to mark the Feb 2016-Aug 2018 rise as a 5 wave rise, it has however ended in 3 waves or a double zig zag [3-3-3] so far. The multiple trendline breaks above confirm my argument that the trend has changed from up to down. All the rallies since the 2009 lows were thus corrective in nature. The end of a 5 wave rise means that we are now again in a bear market. The degree of bear market is a second debate that I addressed in this
recent Post. At the end of a Supercycle
the degree of the coming bear market must also be larger either in time price or relative to inflation, as measured by the Sensex/Gold, Sensex/CPI, or Sensex/USD ratios. Measuring and mapping this is what I continue to do. Welcome to India's first Supercycle degree bear market. Yes this is not 2008, for India it is something deeper and domestic.
