Gold S&P Euro USDINR Nickel

Published: Fri, 10/26/18

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26 October 2018

If you saw my article in the Business line last week I noted that FIIs were excessively short the Nifty, similar to what they had been many times before. Add to that after expiration the shorts are now even higher in Nov. Almost close to where they were in April 20118.

Remember the Indian stock market started to Crash in Sept when the US and Asian markets were still in bounce mode. Starting Oct the US and Asian markets gave up and so they have driven down sentiment big time even though the Nifty has fallen less for the rest of Oct after the initial drop. With this all world markets are aligning into the bear market.

In the meantime we saw a top in Oil after other base metals in what looks like a shift from the inflation theme to the deflation theme. A big shift that is concurrent with the rising dollar all over again.

Volatility has gone up to a new level and is likely to remain elevated. But volatility is not a one sided sword, you will see fast moves both ways, and right now most of that is occurring on the downside but when it starts you will be surprised on the upside as well.

What I like at large is the return of volatility as it means there is more to milk from the market moves in terms of returns either way if you can do it right. Stay tuned.

The Truth about the Markets

Rohit Srivastava

USDINR

USDINR - the currency pair is still in corrective mode and wave b of 4 maybe done. Wave c of 4 could pull back to the 40dema or lower bollinger band in the range of 72.56-72.38 before heading higher.

usdinr 241018

Euro

Euro is heading lower where iii=i = 1.1245 as the next level

euro 251018

S&P 500

S&P 500 wave counts from the top in the ending diagonal that marked wave 5 top. We look like we have a 5 wave decline where wave 5 is an expanding triangle so far.

snp 261018

The daily chart can look a little different like this where wave 5 may have ended at the Sept top and then we have 5 waves down and a positive RSI divergence overnight. Yes this is the last place where we can still do this after that it is an extension lower as it appears in many EMs/Asia this morning.

snp 261018a

Nickel Mcx

Nickel Mcx - monthly momentum went into sell mode at the end of sept. Price broke the 879.60 low made lasts month then the next support is at the monthly averages that converge at 801.

nickel 261018

Gold

Most commodities are reacting negatively to what is a bullish dollar environment. So previous metals may have held out but eventually could succumb to the pressure as well. Gold is near the upper end of a rising channel and unless it breaks out on the upside above 1241 on closing basis we could start another leg down and the lower end of the channel is at 1193. A close below 1193 would mean that the recent advance was corrective and we are heading below the 1159 low.

gold 261018

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Rohit Srivastava
www.indiacharts.com
For accurate market forecasting. Market forecasting is a study of past data to assess
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