Nifty Video Update - Insider video

78.6% retracement and the falling trendline from the Aug top at 10821, come together as the key resistance to get past. 2 mins

http://screencast-o-matic.com/watch/cFl21yrCsN

Hang Seng

The Hong Kong and China markets should be in focus since a lot of the news is on trade talk but here we see a falling channel and prices topped in wave 4 at the top end of the channel so wave 5=1 points down to 23700 and the move lower may have already started.

 HSI long term on this quarterly chart shows wave 5 as an expanding triangle and now we are falling in a impulsive wave that will eventually break the triangle low and head lower to the pattern measurement projection. However EW theory suggest a retest of the wave 4 low in a larger degree bear market that is at 14387.

India VIX

At the 10940 top I was not comfortable with the idea that the India VIX was elevated, a high reading is not what you get at market highs, however the market was also pricing in the events of this week. Now that is behind us. This morning the India VIX managed to open at 12% odd and that low point now gives us a much lower reading that can be associated with a market high. Now you need to watch the next market turn.

Dollar Index

I have spent a while taking about the dollar topping out at the top end of the triangle. That started to form when Sentiment was 91% bullish on the dollar and that is now down to 73% Also longs in the dollar are very high but that does not mean we cannot push up for one final move. So preferred view is top near 97.50 but if we manage a close above 97.50 consider that wave 5 of C is extending toward the long term 66% retracement mark. Wave 5 will subdivide into 5 waves up to do so before completing. What could drive this? General weakness in global equities to start with, weakness in the GBP from a weaker british economy and Brexit and the FED rate hike coming up. Right now options remain open and bias is bearish but this last push can show up so fingers are crossed.

Target

Target was among the US retailers holding out better as the sector was under pressure. Still the chart from 2007 onward is inside two contracting trendlines that can make up a long term wedge formation. The recent top at the top end of the pattern is ominous. Quarterly chart

AMD - Advanced Micro Devices

One of the most popular hot stocks for its in roads into the Telecom tech business, this stocks rally ended abruptly and it has been falling since. A 5 wave decline in wave 1 or A ended and a small flag in wave 2 followed. The momentum lower is building again slowly and could mark the start of wave 3 down.

US 30 year bonds

US long bonds are now clearly pushing above the falling trendline from the top in 2016. I have for a while explored a few different wave counts for the US bond market and one of them is that if we take the early 2018 moves as a triangle in wave IV then an A-B-C decline is complete and we are looking at another major risk off trade. The market is anticipating that the FED will be forced to change its rate stance, not today but going forward.

Nifty IT

The IT sector is close to forming a triangle in wave B 15118 is the upper line for wave e of B to complete. Failure to go above that would signal start of wave C down to lower lows where C=A goes to 12500, and the neckline points to 11235

GBPUSD

For long I have been trying mark a top for the USDGBP and a bottom for the GBPUSD but there is case given Brexit and a recession for a case to the opposite. Also my bearish dollar view might have been in play. so here is a chart of the opposite pair the GBPUSD quarterly and it made a low in 1984 or 1.05, The question is can we go down there again. This chart shows one outcome that allows it, a wedge or wave Z of a complex pattern down forming that will lead to a double bottom at near 1.05. D and A are overlapped. Daily weekly and monthly momentum is in sell mode. D touched the 20 quarter average but did not cross it. This pair could be one of the pull factors for the DXY to go higher first in the short term as Britain votes on Brexit.