BSE Metals

The BSE Metals index rallied back to the upper Bollinger band and is in wave B up and could start wave C down where C=A would take it to new lows down to 8930. 

Philippines

Many Asian market are reversing trend, Jakarta, Singapore, Malaysia, and below Philippines. This one has an expanded flat pattern in wave 2. The weekly chart shows A-B-C where B falls below the low of A and C goes above the high of A. In this B waves are usually 123.6-138.2% of A and C waves are 161.8% of A. The EW calculator sent out yesterday helps you calculate these numbers. Now the larger bear market is back and should see the index go to new lows in a 3rd wave bear market. Dow to 6300 or lower if wave 3 is extended.

US 10 Year Treasury notes

US Bonds did something this week that pushes me back to the alternative wave count till new evidence develops. The weekly momentum went into sell. It did so with prices breaking on the downside of a triangle that I was monitoring. The reason I was expecting an upside break is that US stocks and bonds have been inversely correlated for a long time and they rallied when US stocks were down till December. And when stocks rallied bonds have been holding their own. But they suddenly gave up. Now is that only a last minute glitch or a change in trend? and does it signal bullish for US stocks or will this time a falling bond market bring down stocks as well. The rising dollar appears to have legs and now the bond market wants to fall. The combination has always been lethal especially for Emerging markets. US markets might not ignore it this time if Oil falls back to 42 dollars and lower. So in the short term maybe US stocks take it as a signal for risk on but eventually if the trend continues that will not be the case.

Coming back to the bond chart itself the sell off comes from close to the top end of a reverse channel. Reverse channel means drawing the line of the lows first and then taking a parallel line to it. This then changes the Elliott Wave marking to 1-2-1-2, and then the next move down is a major 3rd wave for US bonds. Now you may ask how can this be if the FED is dovish. By that nature in Oct the US started to unwind its balance sheet by 60 Billion $ a month US bond market should not have rallied, but it bottomed and has been up ever since. So if rising rates and QT caused a rally why are bond markets falling after the dovish move by the FED? Clearly the bond market does not follow the FED but does the opposite. It is front running the FED and what it is going to do. So by the time something happens the market has already discounted it. So let me not question the charts
Till something changes again I will go with the bearish wave count for the US bond market. A third wave is starting. Lets follow this trend. It means bond yields will rise. Yes RBI try cutting rates now. If this happens then we get capital flight.

Indian 10 year bond yields

Indian bond yields are holding their own for now and in early stages of wave 5 up as shown below. Even as RBI intends otherwise. This is a fight to the finish just getting started.

BitCoin

Bitcoin - completed a 5 wave advance and turned lower. So unless we see a move above the recent top the odds are that an a-b-c correction in wave 4 is over, and wave 4 is a flat [3-3-5 wave pattern]. Wave 5 down started for Bitcoin. 5=1 is a 31% decline and points to a 1340$ decline to near the 3000 mark. We cannot say wave 5 will extend but should be open to it.

Gold

I had to spend some time thinking about the gold/dollar view specially as copper prices hit a new high. But here is the hourly chart of gold with a clear 5 wave decline from the recent high. So the trend down has already started here. The others are on watch and should follow.