Market Grind - IC News

Published: Wed, 05/08/19

In these moments of absolute chaos you need to keep your eye on a simple few indicators and Macro variables that can tell you everyday what the trend is. So I focus every day my effort in 'IC Mornings', in going over dozens of charts searching for those inter market relationships and market trends that matter, it is a habit and a process without which keeping a clear picture of what is going on might be difficult. Bombarded with news and events everyday this filtration process is necessary. Here are a few of the posts from this weeks updates. Apart from the sector views the dollar and interest rates are now of great importance as we get closer to the end game.

BSE FMCG

The BSE FMCG index after several attempts to cross the 66% retracement mark is falling below the rising trendline for wave B, wave B done we could be in wave C lower and C=A goes to 9852, from 11567 [today's close].

fmcg 060519

NYSE Composite

The NYSE composite false breakout done. The failure would be further confirmed into a downtrend when it breaks the previous swing low of 12486. Till then odds are open for one more move higher. Now the main concern I have with the recent fall is that it is news based and that has often ended in a trap for bears. Else the damage has been done to sentiment, and yes sentiment was excessively bullish at the highs anyway. So the trend is now in process of reversing from up to down.

nyse 080519

US 30 Year Treasury Bonds

There is this crazy thing about risk off trades, when they happen, bond prices go up but High yield debt falls. And that pushes up credit spreads. That is what we saw yesterday. So while right after the FED spoke it looked like bonds wanted to rally they fell, now they are higher again. In the big picture bonds may go up to the trendline of the last two highs near 151.50, but not above that. From there I would expect lower bond prices again. Still room though for bonds to rally a bit here.

bonds 080519

USDINR

USDINR stopped at the 20dma at 69.50 yesterday. This is the key near term resistance. A move above this will confirm my best bullish count for USDINR that the pattern is a wave ii running flat so far and yesterday we probably started wave iii up.

usdinr 070519

Are US Bonds/Notes Ready to Fall?

The US Bond market and equity market have had two back to back days of declines . The most recent rally in the bond market ended at the 61.8% retracement mark and was corrective in nature. It is possible that we are starting a 3rd wave lower. Follow up action today may give us more clarity on this. It would signal higher rates

notes 030519

'' 30FREE ''

Use Coupon Code - Get Started

Don't WAIT for this update! GET Nifty Daily Weekly and the Monthly Long Short report and everything else directly in your mailbox

STAY AHEAD of the market turns. 3 Steps away. And WORTH many times more than what you pay.

Go here SUBSCRIBE NOW

Rs.700 PER MONTH

CCAvenue - PayPal

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Rohit Srivastava
www.indiacharts.com
For accurate market forecasting. Market forecasting is a study of past data to assess future probable outcomes. It is our endeavor to discuss high probability outcomes for traders and investors. However this is not a solicitation to buy or sell stocks futures or options or any security. Trading in any financial market should be done with sound knowledge and the help of a qualified investment adviser. Stocks based on the Elliott wave model are based on the Fibonacci fractal of the market and momentum indicators, Levels are based on Fibonacci maths and are only indicative of what the mathematical model throws up. This is not a research report. We are not investment advisors This is not a recommendation to buy/sell.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Value Wave Stocks discusses the short term trading set ups that we use while taking our trading decisions. Value wave Investments. discusses the long term set ups that we use while taking our investment decisions. We hold investments in these stocks and are interested in these opinions. This is not the only reason considered while taking our actions. Kindly take the help of a qualified investment advisor before trading. Rohit Srivastava is a Fund Manager of a trading PMS fund at Sharekhan Ltd. that has active open long and short positions in the futures markets at any point of time. The opinions here are for your education and understanding only of how we identify stocks to trade/invest in. We change our opinion daily and even hourly. Any actions taken by you are at your own understanding and risk. We do not offer personalised advise or research of any kind.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
You have received this mail because you signed up for it on our website and agree to our terms and conditions and privacy policy listed there. If not, you may unscubscribe with the link below at any time.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Please do not reply to this message. email to indiacharts@gmail.com