Reliance Communication 14/03/16

Reliance Communication - I have marked the high in 2014 as an X wave because the 2012 low broke, So Rcom has embarked on a 3 wave decline longer term A-B-C, and we are in wave C which should be 5 waves down. Wave 3=1 points to 29, and the recent high of 56.60 should be the pivot for wave 2 that should not be surpassed if we have started down.

Reliance Communication 30/05/17

Reliance communication - from a value wave position this stock is now deeper in the hole. It broke below the Feb low making the rise 3 waves and marking the start of wave 3 of C down to 31. 50-53 is the resistance zone now.

At a higher time frame wave C=A would point to 27. But 27 and 31 are too close and by the time wave 5 of C unfolds it would go lower. So wave C maybe extended and C=1.618*A = 19 would be the next potential target for wave 5 of C to complete.

Reliance Communications 18/04/17

Reliance Communications - or Rcom has been in a bearish trend since 2014 that I have been marking as a 5 wave decline. The fall however just keeps extending. So over the last 3 months we did get a bounce that formed a triangle and prices are falling again. The marking is wave 4 triangle and we started wave 5 of 5 down. On this chart 3<1 and so 5 must be truncated, meaning that 5<3. A channel allows for a fall to 27. That should be the worst case scenario for this structure for now. In fact since wave 5 is to truncate it maybe wave A of a long term trend. Meaning that wave B up will follow which can then go back to 40 or even 60. That would be a large move up from the bottom as a retracement of the entire 5 wave decline. I will discuss it when we get there.

Reliance Communications 30/05/17

Short term oversold conditions and 5 wave declines on the daily time frame can mean a bounce back in Midcap stocks. But the Big picture for some is still not changed. RCom with the recent fall shows that it maybe in a larger 3 of C decline. Remember that I was expecting wave 5 of the fall to truncate but it extended and that changes the structure. Y=W now points to as low as 9. We are already at 19 so not a lot but for what ever there is, this is not yet the final low. 

Reliance Communications 05/02/19

The last post on this was in May 2017. And for good reason. That time I wrote that wave Y=W was at 9 at the lower end of the channel, and we did make a low of 9.6, The X wave that followed was not clear. will we go back to the upper channel line? Not worth the risk late in the game. Remember at point W when A-B-C completed I covered it as a value wave stock and then gave up 2 years later after the X wave was complete and it broke below 106 proving that the rise was not impulsive and the risks larger. Now deep long term bear markets end in Z. So we are in wave Z. Size of Z is unknown but a simple estimate is W=Y=Z, all legs equal. The measure can be made from the high of X or the end point of the triangle shown in X at 18.6. The first measure points to 2.25 and the second at 1.15. So till wave Z is not complete and prices turn we do not know that the downtrend is over. And we do not know many other things when we look at a falling knife like will Z be extended. Just watch and enjoy the patterns and maybe learn something from it to apply to other such stock patterns elsewhere.